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Lord Howe: David Cameron is 'losing control' of Conservative party over Europ...
19 May 2013 at 12:55pm

The Independent
Lord Howe: David Cameron is 'losing control' of Conservative party over Europe ...
The Independent
The former conservative minister Lord Howe, who served as foreign secretary under Margaret Thatcher, has claimed that David Cameron is ?losing control? of his party over Europe. The Tory grandee said that in offering to renegotiate the UK's terms of ...
Andrew Feldman - David Cameron's loyal friend and tennis partnerThe Guardian
Conservatives 'are out of control' over Europe says former chancellor Lord Howe ...Daily Mail
Ukip sees surge in interest after Tory brands activists swivel-eyed loonsTelegraph.co.uk
BBC News -Financial Times -ITV News
all 104 news articles »
British man arrested after children found with slit throats in France - The I...
19 May 2013 at 12:52pm

The Independent
British man arrested after children found with slit throats in France
The Independent
The Foreign Office said today it is 'urgently' investigating reports that a British man is being questioned on suspicion of slitting the throats of his two children. The bodies of the children, thought to be aged five and 10, were discovered at his flat near Lyon ...
British man in France admits slitting his two children's throatsReuters UK
Father admits killing childrenshropshirestar.com
British man held after children's throats slit in FranceTelegraph.co.uk
Daily Mail -expressandstar.com -The Guardian
all 32 news articles »
Philpott Deaths: Mairead To Appeal Sentence - Sky News - Sky News
19 May 2013 at 12:06pm

Mirror.co.uk
Philpott Deaths: Mairead To Appeal Sentence - Sky News
Sky News
Mairead Philpott's defence lawyer says the 17-year term is "too long" and believes her role in the killings is not "substantial". 7:00pm UK, Sunday 19 May 2013. Mairead Philpott. Mairead was convicted of manslaughter. Tweet ...
Mairead Philpott was jailed for 17 years for killing her six childrenDaily Mail
Philpott wife plans sentence appealBelfast Telegraph
Mick and Mairead Philpott banned from visiting gravestones of their six dead ...Mirror.co.uk
ITV News
all 5 news articles »
Man dies in plane crash in Wales - Irish Times
19 May 2013 at 10:57am

Irish Times
Man dies in plane crash in Wales
Irish Times
A man has died while a boy and another man are fighting for their lives after a light aircraft crashed on the approach to an airport runway in Wales. The victim, who was a passenger in the plane, was pronounced dead at the scene of the accident at Caernarfon ...
Caernarfon plane crash leaves one person dead and two critically illBBC News
Caernarfon: Plane Crash Leaves One Dead - Sky NewsSky News
One man dies, two critically injured in airport plane crashDaily Post North Wales
Blackpool Gazette -Mix 96
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British skier falls to his death in French Alps - BBC News
19 May 2013 at 10:36am

BBC News
British skier falls to his death in French Alps
BBC News
A British skier has fallen to his death while tackling an off-piste glacier in the French Alps. The unnamed man and another skier were attempting to descend the Vallee Blanche near Chamonix on Saturday when they became caught in a heavy storm.
British skier dies in Alpine stormBelfast Telegraph
British skier dies after Mont Blanc storm ordealThe Times (subscription)
British Skier Dies In French Alps Fall - Sky NewsSky News
Metro -ITV News -The Guardian
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Civil partnerships amendment 'could wreck' gay marriage bill, Government ... ...
19 May 2013 at 1:04pm

Indian Express
Civil partnerships amendment 'could wreck' gay marriage bill, Government ...
The Independent
Historic legislation that for the first time would allow gay couples to marry could be delayed by up to two years and cost the taxpayer £4bn because of a ?wrecking amendment? being supported by Labour, it was alleged on Sunday night. Senior government ...
More than 500 imams in landmark gay marriage protestTelegraph.co.uk
Too much time spent on gay marriage, says HammondBBC News
No huge demand for gay marriage, says Philip HammondThe Guardian
Daily Mail -Financial Times -Scotsman
all 62 news articles »
Politics of New Labour era 'over' - Evening Standard
19 May 2013 at 9:33am

BBC News
Politics of New Labour era 'over'
Evening Standard
One of the key architects of New Labour said that the politics of the Blair-era government was over and that it was time for a new generation with new ideas. Lord Mandelson, who together with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown founded the New Labour politics ...
Lord Mandelson declares the era of New Labour is overTelegraph.co.uk
Mandelson: EU referendum a 'lottery'BBC News
Tories are in a frenzy - but Soapbox Ed is caught with his pants downDaily Mail

all 6 news articles »
Pedal on Parliament: Cyclists demand better deal - BBC News
19 May 2013 at 10:15am

BBC News
Pedal on Parliament: Cyclists demand better deal
BBC News
Thousands of cyclists have pedalled to the Scottish Parliament, calling for 5% of Scotland's transport budget to be spent on cycling. The Pedal on Parliament event has received the backing of Olympic cycling champion Sir Chris Hoy and former racing cyclist ...
Sir Chris Hoy gives backing to cyclists campaigning for safer roadsSTV Local
Pedal on Parliament 2 on Sunday aims to bring thousands of cyclists out in protestroad.cc
Audrey family to lead Pedal on ParliamentEdinburgh Evening News

all 8 news articles »
Investigation launched after woman found dead in Edinburgh garden - Scottish ...
19 May 2013 at 11:25am

BBC News
Investigation launched after woman found dead in Edinburgh garden
Scottish Daily Record
POLICE, who are treating the death as unexplained, are appealing for anyone with information to come forward. Police are appealing for information. THE death of a woman whose body was found in a city garden is being treated as unexplained, police said.
Woman found dead in Edinburgh gardenHerald Scotland
Woman found dead in Edinburgh tenement gardenScotsman
Garden body death 'unexplained'BBC News
stv.tv
all 5 news articles »
Kent man dies after being shot in Hove street with two others - Kent Online -...
19 May 2013 at 10:12am

Daily Mail
Kent man dies after being shot in Hove street with two others - Kent Online
Kent Online
Police have launched a murder investigation after a 31-year-old man from Kent was shot dead in East Sussex. They are also treating as attempted murders the shootings of two others who were with him. It comes after the man died as he and others were ...
Murder hunt after man shot dead in Hove streetThe Times (subscription)
Man dies after 'triple murder bid' Hove shootingBBC News
Man, 31, dies in hospital after shooting on Hove streetMetro
The Sun -Orange UK News -ITV News
all 9 news articles »
 

Business News
Business News continually updated from thousands of sources around the net.

05/20: Progressions
19 May 2013 at 10:16am

Ramon Cintron was hired as an employment specialist for the Homeless Veteran Reintegration Program at Goodwill Industries of Central Florida.

Steve Jobs: 5 (More) Motivational Business Tips
19 May 2013 at 6:06am

Steve Jobs: 6 Tried-And-True Business Tips , it was difficult to select from the hundreds of motivational comments Mr.

PG&E San Bruno costs adding up.
19 May 2013 at 2:02am

State utility regulators are mulling a proposal - well, several proposals - to slap Pacific Gas and Electric Co.

An Independent Scotland More Vulnerable to Financial Shocks - UK Treasury
18 May 2013 at 9:52pm

An independent Scotland would have an exceptionally large banking sector, compared with the size of the rest of its economy, making it vulnerable to financial shocks and putting Scottish taxpayers at significant risk in the event of the country being hit by another banking crisis, the U.K. Treasury said Sunday.

Former BMO Analyst to Pay C$1.2 Million to Settle Insider-Trading Charges
18 May 2013 at 5:38pm

A former investment-banking analyst at a unit of Bank of Montreal agreed to pay a total of 1.2 million Canadian dollars among other penalties to settle insider-trading charges, as Canada's biggest securities regulators continue to clamp down on inappropriate trading activity.

Ex-Groupon CEO working 9 to 5 on business album
18 May 2013 at 1:28pm

Former Groupon CEO Andrew Mason is diving into several new ventures, including indulging his inner rock star with an album of "motivational business music." Mason said Thursday on his blog that he recently spent a week in Los Angeles and recorded a collection of seven songs called "Hardly Workin'." Mason said he wants to present business wisdom to ... (more)

Cannes: Worldview Options Andrew Dominik's Marilyn Monroe Pic 'Blond'
18 May 2013 at 9:24am

CAA packaged the project and is representing domestic rights, while Wild Bunch is shopping the project to foreign buyers in Cannes.

A year after IPO, Facebook aims to be ad colossus
18 May 2013 at 5:09am

Facebook, the brainchild of a young CEO who sauntered into Wall Street meetings in a hoodie, was going to be bigger than Amazon, bigger than McDonald's, bigger than Coca-Cola. And it was all made possible by our friendships, photos and family ties.

Casting Call: 'Tomorrowland,' 'Transcendence' Add Actors
18 May 2013 at 1:04am

George Clooney, Raffey Cassidy and Hugh Laurie are the stars in the movie that has a release date of Dec.

U.S. FCC nominee Wheeler to divest telecoms holdings if confirmed
17 May 2013 at 8:55pm

Tom Wheeler, nominated to become the new chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, pledged to divest stakes in AT&T Inc, Dish Network Corp, Google Inc and dozens of other tech and telecoms companies if he is confirmed.

Food Trends At Their Freshest in San Diego
17 May 2013 at 4:45pm

After one bite, however, I knew my taste buds had landed on one of my favorite new spring dishes in San Diego.

Carole King to Receive Gershwin Prize at Star-Studded White House Concert
17 May 2013 at 12:36pm

King, a long-time Democratic activist, will also appear at a Library of Congress ceremony next week honoring her contribution to popular music.

Canada's TSN Gets Exclusive Access to U.S. Open in 2015
17 May 2013 at 12:36pm

But ESPN's new 11-year deal means TSN becomes the only Canadian destination for tennis fans north of the border from 2015.

Financial Times Suffers Cyber Attack
17 May 2013 at 9:31am

Pearson's Financial Times reported Friday that several of its blogs and social media accounts were "compromised by hackers." The announcement, initially made through the U.K.-based business publication's Twitter account, was also confirmed by FOX Business through a Financial Times spokesperson.

Air Force Targets $50M Savings With Apple iPads
17 May 2013 at 8:31am

The lightweight Apple tablet has opened the door to more than $50 million in cost savings over the next 10 years, according to the military.

 

BBC News - Business
The latest stories from the Business section of the BBC News web site.


Bank governor in Help to Buy warning
19 May 2013 at 5:18am
The outgoing Bank of England governor warns a government plan to boost the housing market with part-mortgage guarantees has no long-term place.

Yahoo 'to buy Tumblr for $1.1bn'
19 May 2013 at 12:08pm
Yahoo's board approves a deal to buy New York-based blogging service Tumblr for $1.1bn (£725m), US media reports say.

Google chief defends tax affairs
19 May 2013 at 5:04am
Google's executive chairman Eric Schmidt defends the company's tax affairs after it comes in for strong criticism from MPs.

Miliband pledge on tax avoidance
19 May 2013 at 2:29am
Labour leader Ed Miliband says he will write new rules to tackle corporate tax avoidance if he wins the next election, even without international agreement.

Ofcom plans simplified phone numbers
17 May 2013 at 6:47pm
Some people are "put off" making important calls because of confusion over the amount they will be charged, according to the telecoms regulator.

Treasury claims banks 'safer in UK'
18 May 2013 at 5:23pm
The latest UK government paper on the impact of Scottish independence will claim the UK is better placed to manage the risk of a financial crisis.

Contactless 'charging errors' at M&S
17 May 2013 at 6:56pm
Some Marks and Spencer customers say its contactless payment terminals have taken cash from cards other than the ones intended for payment.

Morrisons agrees deal with Ocado
17 May 2013 at 10:32am
Morrisons, the UK's fourth largest supermarket chain, says it will launch online shopping by January 2014 after agreeing a tie-up with Ocado.

Thousands rally to oppose Italy cuts
18 May 2013 at 11:40am
Tens of thousands of protesters, led by trade unionists, rally in the Italian capital Rome against the policies of the new coalition government.

Europe car sales break losing streak
17 May 2013 at 3:46am
Car sales across Europe rose in April for the first time in 18 months, helped by strong demand in the UK and by the early Easter break.

Public sector pensions face big hit
17 May 2013 at 6:09am
Four million public sector employees will see a dramatic reduction in the overall value of their pension schemes, a new report claims.

Ofcom: 'Too many' nuisance calls
17 May 2013 at 3:59am
UK households are receiving too many nuisance calls, according to the telecoms regulator, Ofcom.

Lloyds shares hit break-even point
17 May 2013 at 5:47am
Lloyds Banking Group's share price passes 61.2p in morning trading, the break-even point for the government's investment in the group.

Jockey Club hits its bond target
17 May 2013 at 4:20am
The Jockey Club hits its £15m Racecourse Bond target and extends the application window until 28 May.

Spain reports monthly trade surplus
17 May 2013 at 7:31am
Spain records its first monthly trade surplus in more than 40 years as demand for imports dries up.
 

Financial services company news - FT.com

Low rates fail to spur M&A boom
19 May 2013 at 12:37pm
The lack of dealmaking in a historically low interest rate environment is a break from the past, when cheap capital fuelled waves of M&A
Shrewd corporate cash comes up roses
19 May 2013 at 8:24am
How popular events such as the Chelsea Flower Show, Wimbledon and Royal Ascot can link a group?s brand with the message it is selling
New era as Swiss bank secrecy declines
19 May 2013 at 6:36am
After a long battle to safeguard its 80-year tradition of banking secrecy, Switzerland faces a new era as it begins negotiations on a new EU tax accord
New money put City?s reputation at risk
17 May 2013 at 5:04pm
The UK?s lax and disjointed listing regime has helped to open the door to questionable overseas entrants, changing the make-up of the indices
Europeans consent to costs rip-off
17 May 2013 at 2:56pm
Small investors in the US have grown ever smarter and more informed over the last decade, while their counterparts on the other side of the Atlantic have not
Ambrosiadou wins battle over Ikos codes
17 May 2013 at 2:48pm
UK?s High Court rules against a case brought by Martin Coward, Elena Ambrosiadou?s husband, in which he had claimed ownership of the algorithms
Fed?hints?at?financial Heimlich manoeuvre
17 May 2013 at 12:00pm
John Dizard considers whether the authorities will act vigorously to get some air back into the economy?s lungs if the markets start to choke
Merryn Somerset Webb: Fund managers are a busted flush
17 May 2013 at 8:36am
The structure of the industry condemns many of them to underperform ? which is good news for the rest of us
CPP chief to go as part of job cuts
17 May 2013 at 8:09am
Finance director will also step down
Letter from Lex: a rally good time
17 May 2013 at 7:30am
As markets in the US and Japan rally, the oil, tech and banking sectors are busy
Accounting boards draft new leasing rules
17 May 2013 at 5:14am
Companies will be forced to book trillions of dollars of liabilities in a move to give investors a clearer picture of groups? assets and debts
3i raises cost-cutting targets
16 May 2013 at 5:15pm
British private equity investor promises to press ahead with asset disposals this year after the value of its assets rose 11.5 per cent last year
US closes in on auditing deal with China
16 May 2013 at 4:41pm
It is not clear how quickly a deal will be reached, and it is possible China could limit what it allows in the hands of foreign regulators
Blackstone courts bold trades for fund
16 May 2013 at 4:15pm
The vehicle will invite managers with whom it already invests via its $48bn fund of funds platform to submit their boldest ideas in return for a fee
Pandit returns to banking via India
16 May 2013 at 12:53pm
The former Citigroup chief and another Indian executive are acquiring a stake in JM Financial and launching a fund to invest in distressed assets
 

Business News - Markets reports and financial news from Sky
Sky business news provides up to the minute reports on markets, share prices and the world economy, alongside expert business commentary.


Sir Mervyn King Criticises Help To Buy Scheme
19 May 2013 at 3:50am
The Bank of England governor tells Sky News there is "no place in the long run" for the plan to boost the housing market.

Euro Tax 'To Decimate Pensions', Report Says
19 May 2013 at 11:32am
A report to be published on Monday warns of the disastrous consequences of a new financial transactions tax, Sky News understands.

Google Faces Fresh Claims On Tax Avoidance
19 May 2013 at 11:43am
An ex-Google executive claims its tax operation is "immoral", days after MPs allege it was "devious, calculated and unethical".

Sir Roger Carr In Lead to Become BAE Chair
18 May 2013 at 6:44am
The outgoing CBI President is in pole position to replace Dick Olver at the helm of the defence giant, Sky News learns.

Slovenia Gets Second Agency Debt Downgrade
18 May 2013 at 6:55am
Just weeks after Slovenia was downgraded by rating agency Moody's, it receives a new blow as Fitch voices concerns over a bailout.

China Spreads Alternative To US GPS System
18 May 2013 at 10:43pm
Pakistan is the latest country to sign up to the alternative to the US GPS as China aims to take its satnav system global.

EU To Ban Olive Oil Bottles From Restaurants
18 May 2013 at 2:54am
Traditional glass jugs and dipping bowls will be replaced with pre-packaged factory bottles to help hygiene and avoid fraud.

Financial Times Hacked By 'Syria Group'
18 May 2013 at 7:10am
Its website and tweets are compromised in a Syria-linked attack - just hours after a top Twitter executive visits the FT newsroom.

Gran Turismo Wants To Build Real-Life Racer
18 May 2013 at 3:25am
As the video game celebrates its 15th anniversary, its creator says he wants to move off the screen and onto the race track.

Nuisance Calls: Claim Firms Face Ofcom Inquiry
17 May 2013 at 7:08am
Cold-calling by claims management firms and others is set to be investigated after the telecom regulator's "shocking" survey.
 

Forex Blog
Learn about the world of Forex

Loonie and Aussie Share Downward Bond
by Adam Kritzer
30 Jun 2011 at 9:15am

In yesterday’s post (Tide is Turning for the Aussie), I explained how a prevailing sense of uncertainty in the markets has manifested itself in the form of a declining Australian Dollar. With today’s post, I’d like to carry that argument forward to the Canadian Dollar.

As it turns out, the forex markets are currently treating the Loonie and the Aussie as inseparable. According to Mataf.net, the AUD/USD and CAD/USD are trading with a 92.5% correlation, the second highest in forex (behind only the CHFUSD and AUDUSD). The fact that the two have been numerically correlated (see chart below) for the better part of 2011 can also be discerned with a cursory glance at the charts above.

Why is this the case? As it turns out, there are a handful of reasons. First of all, both have earned the dubious characterization of “commodity currency,” which basically means that a rise in commodity prices is matched by a proportionate appreciation in the Aussie and Loonie, relative to the US dollar. You can see from the chart above that the year-long commodities boom and sudden drop corresponded with similar movement in commodity currencies. Likewise, yesterday’s rally coincided with the biggest one-day rise in the Canadian Dollar in the year-to-date.

Beyond this, both currencies are seen as attractive proxies for risk. Even though the chaos in the eurozone has very little actual connection to the Loonie and Aussie (which are fiscally sound, geographically distinct, and economically insulated from the crisis), the two currencies have recently taken their cues from political developments in Greece, of all things. Given the heightened sensitivity to risk that has arisen both from the sovereign debt crisis and global economic slowdown, it’s no surprise that investors have responded cautiously by unwinding bets on the Canadian dollar.

Finally, the Bank of Canada is in a very similar position to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Both central banks embarked on a cycle of monetary tightening in 2010, only to suspend rate hikes in 2011, due to uncertainty over near-term growth prospects. While GDP growth has indeed moderated in both countries, price inflation has not. In fact, the most recent reading of Canadian CPI was 3.7%, which is well above the BOC’s comfort zone. Further complicating the picture is the fact that the Loonie is near a record high, and the BOC remains wary of further stoking the fires of appreciation by making it more attractive to carry traders.

In the near-term, then, the prospects for further appreciation are not good. The currency’s rise was so solid in 2009-2010 that it now seems the forex markets may have gotten ahead of themselves. A pullback towards parity – and beyond – seems like the only realistic possibility. If/when the global economy stabilizes, central banks resume heightening, and risk appetite increases, you can be sure that the Loonie (and the Aussie) will pick up where they left off.

Tide is Turning for the Aussie
by Adam Kritzer
29 Jun 2011 at 10:40am

“Australia is about to enter a boom that should last decades…The Australian dollar is unlikely to go back to where it was, and manufacturing will shrink in importance to the economy, perhaps even faster than it has been.” This, according to Martin Parkinson, Treasury Minister of Australia. While 30 years from now, Mr. Parkinson’s prognosis might probe to be accurate, I’m not so sure it applies to the period 3 months from now. Here’s why:

First of all, the putative economic boom that is taking place in Australia is being driven entirely by high commodity prices and surging production and exports. Since peaking at the end of April, commodity prices have fallen mightily. You can see from the chart above that there continues to exist a tight correlation between the AUD/USD and commodities prices. As commodities prices have fallen over the last two months, so has the Australian Dollar.

In addition, while demand will probably remain strong over the long-term, it may very well slacken over the short-term, due to declining economic growth across the industrialized world.  Consider also that Australia’s largest market for commodity exports – China – may have difficulty sustaining a GDP growth rate of 10%, and at the very least, new fixed-asset investment (which necessitates demand for raw materials) will temporarily peak in the immediate future.

Finally, the mining sector directly accounts for only 8% of Australia’s economy, which means that only to a limited extent to high commodities prices contribute to the bottom line of Australian GDP. This notion is reinforced by the 1.2% economic contraction in the second quarter – the biggest decline in 20 years – and the fact that GDP is basically flat over the last three quarters. Many non-mining economic indicators are sagging, and the number of corporate bankruptcies is 10% higher than in 2010. In the end, then, the ebb and flow of Australia’s fortune depends less on commodities, and more on other sectors.

Mr. Parkinson’s optimistic forecasts might also be undermined in the short-term by a looser-than-expected monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia last hiked its benchmark interest rate in November 2010, and may not hike again for a few more months due to moderating economic growth and proportionally moderate inflation. Given that an attractive interest rate differential may be driving some of the speculative activity that has girded the Aussie’s rise, a decline in this differential could likewise propel it downward.

That’s because anecdotal reports suggest that the Australian Dollar remains a popular long currency for carry traders, funded by shorting the US Dollar, and to a lesser extent, Japanese Yen. Given that many of these carry trades are heavily leveraged, it wouldn’t take much to trigger a short squeeze and a rapid decline in the AUD/USD. For evidence of this phenomenon, one has to look no further back than May 2010, when the Aussie fell 10-15% in only three weeks.

Ultimately, as one commentator recently pointed out, the Aussie’s 70% rise since 2008 might better be seen as US Dollar weakness (which also catalyzed the rise in commodity prices). The apparent stabilizing of the dollar, then, might let some air out of the currency down under.

Emerging Market Currencies Brace for Correction
by Adam Kritzer
28 Jun 2011 at 2:42am

“It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair,” begins Charles Dickens’ The Tale of Two Cities. In 2011, the winter of despair was followed by the spring of uncertainty. Due to the earthquake/tsunami in Japan, the continued tribulations of Greece, rising commodity prices, and growing concern over the global economic recovery, volatility in the forex markets has risen, and investors are unclear as to how to proceed. For now at least, they are responding by dumping emerging market currencies.

As you can see from the chart above (which shows a cross-section of emerging market forex), most currencies peaked in the beginning of May and have since sold-off significantly. If not for the rally that started off the year, all emerging market currencies would probably be down for the year-to-date, and in fact many of them are anyway. Still, the returns for even the top performers are much less spectacular than in 2009 and 2010. Similarly, the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index is down 3.5% in the YTD, and the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI+) has risen 4.5% (which is reflects declining growth forecasts as much as perceptions of increasing creditworthiness).

There are a couple of factors that are driving this ebbing of sentiment. First of all, risk appetite is waning. Over the last couple months, every flareup in the eurozone debt crisis coincided with a sell-off in emerging markets. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Central and eastern European currencies that are seen as being most vulnerable to financial turmoil in the euro zone have underperformed.” Economies further afield, such as Turkey and Russia, have also experienced weakness in their respective currencies. Some analysts believe that because emerging economies are generally more fiscally sound than their fundamental counterparts, that they are inherently less risky. Unfortunately, while this proposition makes theoretical sense, you can be assured that a default by a member of the eurozone will trigger a mass exodus into safe havens – NOT into emerging markets.

While emerging market Asia and South America is somewhat insulated from eurozone fiscal problems. On the other hand, they remain vulnerable to an economic slowdown in China and to rising inflation. Emerging market central banks have avoided making significant interest rate hikes (hence, rising bond prices) – for fear of inviting further capital inflow and stoking currency appreciation – and the result has been rising price inflation. You can see from the chart above that the darkest areas (symbolizing higher inflation) are all located in emerging economic regions. While high inflation is not inherently problematic, it is not difficult to conceive of a downward spiral into hyperinflation. Again, a sudden bout of monetary instability would send investors rushing to the exits.

While most analysts (myself included) remain bullish on emerging markets over the long-term, many are laying off in the short-term. “RBC emerging market strategist Nick Chamie says his team has recommended ‘defensive posturing’ to clients since May 5 and isn’t recommending new bullish emerging currency bets right now….HSBC said Thursday that it isn’t recommending outright short positions on emerging market currencies to clients but suggested a more ‘cautious’ and selective approach in making currency bets.” This phenomenon will be exacerbated by the fact that market activity typically slows down in the summer chart above courtesy of Forex Magnates) as traders go on vacation. With less liquidity and an inability to constantly monitor one’s portfolio, traders will be loathe to take on risky positions.

NO QE3: What are the Implications for the Dollar?
by Adam Kritzer
25 Jun 2011 at 7:28am

The verdict is nearly in; there will be no QE3. The second round of quantitative easing (?QE2?) will expire at the end of this month, and while it will not be unwound for quite some time, the Fed has indicated that it will not be followed by yet another round. The question on the minds of forex traders, of course, is what does this mean for the Dollar?

In his most recent press conference, Ben Bernanke, himself, indicated that QE3 was unlikely. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News, the majority of FX analysts (65%) believe him. Simply, the circumstances don?t support further easing. To be sure, the unemployment rate remains high, and the economy is teetering on the verge of double-dip recession. However, the last two rounds did little to address either of these problems, and companies have hoarded cash rather than investing in new plant and workers.

Interest rates are still hovering around record lows, and there isn?t anything to be gained from trying to lower them further. Besides, given that inflation is now above 3% ? due to an explosion in good and energy prices ? QE3 would simply be too risky. Economist Ken Goldstein summarized the situation as follows: “We will come to the end of QE2 and largely we mark about how little happened when it ended and that?s also an argument about why there may not be persuasive argument to do a QE3.”

On the other hand, there are some analysts who think that QE3 is inevitable (29%). PIMCO?s Bill Gross, manager of the world?s biggest bond fund, recently indicated that, ?Next Jackson Hole in August will likely hint at QE3/interest rate caps.? (Personally, I think that he?s probably just bitter that his forecast of a decline in Treasury Bond prices hasn?t materialized). One columnist wrote that the Fed?s arm will be twisted by the ongoing collapse of the housing market, while others have argued that the recent decline in the S&P 500 will spur the Fed into action. Most of us, however, believe that the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach before ultimately conceding that more easing is necessary.

For now at least, then, the prevailing assumption is that there will not be a QE3. As for how forex markets have digested this news, they have taken it in stride. The Dollar is now holding its value, and as I wrote in a previous post, it may even have bottomed out. Of course, it doesn?t hurt that the Euro is being punished by another flare-up in the sovereign debt crisis and investors are getting nervous about bubbles in emerging market currencies, all of which provide support for the dollar.

The fact that QE2 will soon end without having triggered financial apocalypse or hyperinflation ? as some cassandras initially predicted ? is something that is worth nothing. Of course, the proceeds of QE1 and QE2 will be recycled indefinitely into the markets, and forex investors can?t completely put quantitative easing behind them. Still, that there won’t be any more additional cash injected into commodities markets and emerging economy asset markets means that one of the main sources of downward pressure on the dollar has been eliminated.

Ironically, it is possible that the unveiling of QE3 could actually cause the dollar to rally. The reason is that there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the markets, which provides the dollar with some safe haven demand. If the Fed were to concede that all is not well on the economic front and respond by more money printing, it could drive some safe haven flows into the US, even to the extent that it would overwhelm outflows driven by concerns over inflation.

Personally, I think the dollar will continue to hold its value, and perhaps even appreciate slightly in the near-term, as forex markets dither over the way forward.

http://www.forexblog.org/2011/06/has-the-us-dollar-hit-bottom.html Swiss Franc is the Only Safe Haven Currency
by Adam Kritzer
23 Jun 2011 at 10:11am

According to conventional market wisdom, there are three safe haven currencies: the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and US Dollar. It is to these currencies that investors flock whenever there is a crisis, or merely an outbreak of uncertainty, and for much of the period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the three were closely correlated. As you can see from the chart below, however, one of these currencies has begun to distinguish itself from the other two, leading some to argue that there is now only one true safe haven currency: the Swiss Franc.

What’s not to like about the Franc? It boasts a strong economy, low inflation, and low unemployment. Unlike the US and Japan, Switzerland is not plagued by a high national debt and perennial budget deficits. Its monetary policy has been extremely conservative: no quantitative easing, asset-purchases, or any other money printing programs with euphemistic names.

Ironically, the only thing that makes investors nervous about the franc is that it has already risen so much. Remember when it reached the milestone of parity against the dollar in 2010? Since then, it has appreciated by an additional 20%, and seems to breach a new record on an almost weekly basis. The same goes for the CHF/EUR and CHF/JPY. The President of Switzerland’s export association is expecting further gains: “Parity is a realistic scenario. Given the indebtedness of the eurozone and the strong attraction of the franc, the euro is likely to continue to lose value.”

Given that Swiss exports have surged in spite of (or even because of) the rising Franc, however, he has very little to worry about at the moment. As you can see fromt he graphic below (courtesy of the Financial Times), the balance of trade continues to expand, and has exploded in a handful of key sectors. To be sure, economists expect that this situation will eventually correct itself and are already moving to revise downward 2011 and 2012 GDP growth estimates. Then again, they made the same erroneous predictions in 2010.

The main variable in the Swiss Franc is the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Having booked a loss of CHF 20 Billion from failed intervention in 2010, the SNB is not in a position to make the same mistake again. In fact, SNB President Philipp Hildebrand has not even stooped to verbal intervention this time around, undoubtedly cognizant of the fact that he has very little credibility in forex markets.

At the same time, the SNB is not in any hurry to raise interest rates, lest it stoke further speculative interest in the Franc. Its June meeting came and went without any indication of when it might tighten. Interest rate futures currently reflect an expectation that the first rate hike won’t come until March 2012. Thus, the downside of holding the Franc is that it will continue to pay a negative real interest rate. The only upside, then, is the possibility of further appreciation. Fortunately, the SNB is unlikely to stop the Franc from rising, since it serves the same monetary end as higher interest rates. In other words, a more valuable Franc serves as a direct check on inflation because it lowers the cost of commodity imports and should (eventually) soften demand for Swiss exports.

It is possible that the Swiss Franc will suffer a correction at some point, if only because it rose by such a large margin in such a short period of time. On the other hand, given that its economy has proved its ability to withstand the Franc’s appreciation, it’s no wonder that investors continue to bet on its rise.

Is it Possible to Trade Forex Part-time?
by Adam Kritzer
22 Jun 2011 at 10:17am

This week, I came across an article in the San Francisco Gate (which, incidentally, has really ramped up its forex coverage over the last year) that addressed this very topic. Given that part-time forex traders probably outnumber those that practice the craft full-time, such an article was long overdue.

In sum, the author advises part-time traders to concentrate their trading during the busiest times of the day, or failing that, to simply trade the most active currency pairs during the period of the day that one happens to have time to trade. For example, if you wish to trade the USD/EUR but only have a limited amount of time to do so, you are advised to trade the opening of the New York and/or London sessions, at 8AM EST and 3AM EST, respectively. Alternatively, if you only have time to trade from midnight to 2am, for example, you are advised to trade currency pairs in which the quote currency is the Yen, because during that time the Tokyo session is “in full swing.”

Alas, this kind of strategy is based on a very dubious assumption, which is that you should aim to trade the currency pairs which are both the most liquid and most volatile (ignore the contradiction here), because this will yield the most profits. In other words, it’s easy to capture profits when trading pairs that tend to bounce around a lot and which are cheap and easy to buy and sell. Right?

If you read the Forex Blog with any regularity and are ware that my bend is towards fundamental analysis, it’s probably already obvious to you that I don’t think this is necessarily the case. Consider that forex is a zero-sum game. In other words, on average, 50% of traders win and 50% lose. [When you account for trading costs (i.e. spreads), its probably closer to 30% win and 70% lose, but let's ignore this for the sake of argument]. Thus, the way I see it, a trader that enters the market during the busiest times has the same chance of winning (~50%) as a different trader that enters the market during the least busy time of day. Either way you cut it, someone has to win and someone has to lose, and no amount of liquidity or volatility can rectify this situation.

Thus, my advice for part-time traders is to forget trading altogether. If you don’t have the time to constantly monitor the market, pore over charts, and develop technical strategy, the odds of winning are pretty low. On the other hand, why not shift your focus from trading to investing? Trading is difficult under the best of circumstances and even more difficult when you don’t have enough time to make a real commitment.

The only way around this is to shift your time horizon from minutes to days – or even weeks. This way, it won’t matter when you have time to trade. Spreads might be marginally higher (as evidenced in the spikes in he chart above, which shows how spreads fluctuate over time) for the USD/EUR at midnight than at 8am, but if you’re planning on holding the pair for more than 10 seconds (and your target profit is greater than 15 pips), this is basically irrelevant.

This way, you also don’t have to worry about carefully planning your entry and exit into positions. Entering a swing trade with a targeted profit of 500pips is probably just as good at 4am as it is at 7am, all else being equal. While this doesn’t necessarily increase the odds of success (above 50%), at least it gives you a great deal more flexibility in being a part-time trader.

Japanese Yen In ?No Man?s Land?
by Adam Kritzer
20 Jun 2011 at 8:52am

This, according to a hedge fund manager that has decided to cancel all of his fund’s bearish bets on the Japanese Yen. The reason: the yen is rising, and it’s unclear when – or even if – the government will intervene to push it back down. Even though the yen’s strength is fundamentally illogical, it seems that investors are growing increasingly wary of betting against it.

As I pointed out in my previous post on the Yen (“Japanese Yen Strength is Illogical, but Does it Matter?“), the yen has actually fallen over the last twelve months, on a correlation weighted basis (though to be fair, it has staged a pretty impressive comeback since the beginning of April). Unfortunately, investors mainly care about how it is performing against a handful of key currencies, namely the US Dollar. Simply, the yen continues to rise against the dollar, and it is unclear when it will stop.

Japanese government analysis has indeed confirmed that “speculators” are behind the strong yen, as the alleged wide-scale repatriation of yen by Japanese insurance companies has yet to materialize. Of course, there isn’t really much doubt: Japan’s economy is contracting, due to decrease in output spurred by the tsunami. In May, it recorded its second largest monthly trade deficit ever.

Meanwhile, interest rates and bond yields are pathetically low, and the Bank of Japan is being urged to expand its asset buying program, which would theoretically result in a devaluation of the yen. As  a result, retail Japanese forex traders (nicknamed “Mrs. Watanabes“) have resumed shorting the Yen as part of a carry trade strategy.

Alas, speculators either don’t share their pessimism or are running out of patience. While everyone continues to assume that the BOJ will intervene if the Yen rises to 80 against the dollar, no one can be sure whether the line in the sand might not be 78 or even 75. At this point, intervention seems to hinge more on politics than on economics, which means predicting it is beyond the scope of this post. In other words, “There is too much uncertainty and volatility in markets right now to make that yen trade appealing.” And sure enough, the most recent Commitments of Traders data shows that speculators have been re-building their yen long positions over the last month.

In the end, the speculators are probably right. The Bank of Japan has intervened twice over the last twelve months, and the impact has always been short-lived. Besides, given that many speculators still remain committed to shorting the yen, it remains extraordinarily vulnerable to the kind of short squeeze that sent it soaring 5% in a single session en route to the record high it touched in March.

I’m personally still bearish on the yen, but I also think it’s too risky to short it against the dollar, which seems to be declining for its own reasons. As you can see from the chart below, the yen has fallen against virtually every other major currency. Yen shorters, then, might be wise to avoid the dollar altogether and focus instead on any number of other currencies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-17/japan-recovery-means-boj-can-avoid-adding-stimulus-muto-says.html Forex Volatility Continues Rising
by Adam Kritzer
17 Jun 2011 at 9:38am

This week witnessed another flareup in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. As a result, volatility in the EUR/USD pair surged, by some measures to a record high. Even though the Euro rallied yesterday and today, this suggests that investors remain nervous, and that going forward, the euro could embark on a steep decline.

There are a couple of forex volatility indexes. The JP Morgan G7 Volatility Index is based on the implied volatility in 3-month currency options and is one of the broadest measures of forex volatility. As you can see from the chart above, the index is closing in on year-to-date high (excluding the spike in March caused by the Japanese tsunami), and is generally entrenched in an upward trend. Barring day-to-day spikes, however, it will take months to confirm the direction of this trend.

For specific volatility measurements, there is no better source of data than Mataf.net (whose founder, Arnaud Jeulin, I interviewed only last month). Here, you can find data on more than 30 currency pairs, charted across multiple time periods. You can see for the EUR/USD pair in particular that volatility is now at the highest point in 2011 and is closing in on a two-year high.

Meanwhile, the so-called risk-reversal rate for Euro currency options touched 3.1, which is greater than the peak of the credit crisis. This indicator represents a proxy for investor concerns that the Euro will collapse suddenly, and its high level suggests that this is indeed a growing concern. In addition, implied volatility in options contracts has jumped dramatically over the last week, which confirms that investors expect the euro to move dramatically over the next month.

What does all of this mean? In a nutshell, it shows that panic is rising in the forex markets. Last month, I used this notion as a basis for arguing that the dollar safe-haven trade will make a come-back. This would still seem to be the case, and should also benefit the Swiss Franc, which is nearing an all-time high against the euro. Naturally, it also implies that forex investors remain extremely concerned about a continued decline in the euro, and are rushing to hedge their exposure and/or close out long positions altogether.

Mataf.net suggests that this could make the EUR/USD an interesting pair to trade, since large swings in either direction will necessarily create opportunities for traders. While I have no opinion on such indiscriminate trading [I prefer to make directional bets based on fundamentals], I must nonetheless acknowledge the logic of such a strategy.

http://www.forexblog.org/2011/05/interview-with-arnaud-jeulin-of-mataf-net-try-a-lot-of-strategies.html Euro Nears Breaking Point
by Adam Kritzer
16 Jun 2011 at 8:33am

It’s deja vu all over again in the forex markets as another twist in the sovereign debt crisis has sent the euro tumbling by the greatest margin in nearly a year. It was only last month that I posted “The Euro (Still) has a Greek Problem,” and yet, forex markets are once again reacting to the possibility of a Greek default as thought it were a new development. At the very least, investors finally seem to be acknowledging the inevitable.

There have been several factors at work in this latest episode. On Monday, S&P downgraded its credit rating for Greece to CCC, following on a similar move by Moody’s. That means that Greece’s sovereign credit rating is now the lowest in the world, behind such eminent economies as Grenada and Ecuador. While the move was hardly noteworthy in itself, it represents one more straw on the camel’s back.

Greece’s government is increasingly unstable, and Prime Minister George Papandreou has become so desperate that he has suggested forming an alliance with Greece’s most powerful opposition party. Meanwhile, violent riots outside Greek Parliament have reportedly become a daily occurrence, as the Greek populace has proven unwilling to accept wage cuts and tax increases.

As if that weren’t enough, there is tremendous uncertainty surrounding the next stage of the Greek bailout. No one can agree on what amount to give and what should be stipulated in return. Some parties think that private investors should be involved in the bailout by taking a “haircut” on the bonds that they own. Some members of the eurozone are balking about contributing any funds at all, wary of justifying it to their own citizens and that it is merely forestalling the inevitable.

I think the NYTimes offered the best summary: “Funding fatigue is growing in the north European creditor countries, especially Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria, just as austerity fatigue is mounting in Greece.” When you consider that Greek interest rates and credit default swap spreads have surged to record highs, it seems that default is really inevitable. If the IMF and European Union are so determined, they can push off default until 2013. Still, default now or default then is still default.

At this point, then, the only real question is what happens when Greece defaults. Will it be forced to leave the Eurozone? Will that push the rest of the Eurozone fringe closer towards default? Will the Euro collapse and cease to exist as a currency? What will happen then?

Unfortunately, I think the answer to all of these questions is yes. At the very least, Greece will be forced out of the eurozone. Bondholders will push interest rates in Ireland, Spain, and Portugal up to double-digit levels, trapping them in the same cycle in which Greece is currently ensnared. Given the exposure of French and German banks to the sovereign debt of financially troubled eurozone members, they will also require state bailouts, and so on.

In a recent op-ed published in The Financial Times, celebrity economies Nouriel Roubini argued that the only way to avoid a complete eurozone meltdown is if the euro depreciates rapidly “to restore competitiveness to the periphery” or if the European Union is able to rapidly achieve complete fiscal and economic union. Roubini argues that the former is difficult because of the ECB’s hawkishness, while the latter is precluded by political hurdles that remain too formidable to overcome.

As Greece inches ever closer to default, the markets will increasingly become gripped by utter uncertainty over the questions that I posed above. Central Banks will stop accumulating euro-denominated assets, and investment funds will similarly shun Europe. (In fact, there is already evidence that this is happening). While European interest rates are attractive relative to the rest of the G4, they are hardly enough to compensate investors for this uncertainty. And when the markets come to terms with this, the euro might finally reach its breaking point.

S&P 500 Decouples from Euro?
by Adam Kritzer
14 Jun 2011 at 9:58am

While I have written quite about forex correlations in recent posts, the focus has primarily been on correlations that exist between currencies. In this post, I would like to address a correlation that exists between currencies and other forex markets- specifically the relationship between the Euro and US stocks.

If you look at the chart above, you can see that an unmistakable correlation exists between the S&P500 and the EUR/USD that stretches back at least six months. Generally speaking, when the EURUSD has risen, so has the S&P 500, and vice versa. In fact, this correlation is so airtight that one analyst recently discovered that the two financial vehicles often reach intra-day highs and lows within minutes of one another!

Why is this the case? In a nutshell, it is because the Euro – especially relative to the dollar – is a proxy for risk appetite. The same is necessarily true for US stocks. When investors are confident in the strength of the global economic recovery and the possibility of crisis is distant, the euro will rise. This has nothing to do with fundamentals in Europe, which are probably at least as bad as they are in the US. Of course, it may be connected with dollar weakness, since it is arguably the case that quantitative easing has both depressed the dollar and buoyed US stocks.

As I intimated in the title of this post, however, the S&P recently decoupled from the euro. Since the beginning of June, US equities have declined sharply, to the extent that they have given back most of their gains in the year-to-date. The EUR/USD, meanwhile, continued rising all the way until last week. While this has happened on a couple previous occasions, this was perhaps the sharpest break between the two.

I’m personally at a loss to explain why this happened. It has been conjectured that the driving force behind the correlation is algorithmic trading, and that hence, it must also represent the source of the break. In other words, high-frequency traders – which account for an ever-increasing proportion of forex volume – tweaked their trading algorithms so as not to buy the S&P 500 when the EURUSD rises, and vice versa.

It’s probably also the case that S&P 500 was falling for endogenous reasons- specifically a decline in GDP growth and earnings expectations which need not necessarily reflect itself in a stronger euro. In fact, in a normal functioning market, you would expect an inverse correlation; strong US economic fundamentals should translate into both a strong dollar and rising stocks. Could it be that worsening fundamentals are manifesting themselves in the form of a weak dollar and weak stocks?

Alas, the correlation has re-established itself over the last week, which means this is largely a moot issue. At the very least, it’s still worth being aware of, both insofar as it remains intact and in the event that it breaks down again.

 

DailyFX - Forex Market News
Forex Market News

Dollar Posts Second 1.5% Weekly Rally in 17 Months, QE3 In Focus
by John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
18 May 2013 at 12:16am
The dollar’s performance these past two weeks has been extraordinary. And, unlike the risks that loom over the S&P 500 and yen crosses should sentiment sour; the greenback would only do better if the market’s fears are realized.

EUR/USD Rebound Could Materialize as May PMIs Seek Lift
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17 May 2013 at 10:25pm
The Euro gained across the board this week, except against the strengthening US Dollar.

Weekly Forex Trading Forecast: Will Risk Trends or QE3 Take the FX Reins?
by David Rodriguez, Quantitative StrategistJohn Kicklighter, Chief Currency StrategistMichael Boutros, Currency StrategistDavid Song, Currency AnalystChristopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
17 May 2013 at 7:02pm
Both the S&P 500 and US Dollar continue to soar to new heights - bucking traditional risk appetite currents. Will the yield chase maintain this unusual mix or will sentiment finally shock the markets back in line?

Dollar Posts Biggest Surge in 18 Months on the Way to 3 Year Highs
by John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
17 May 2013 at 6:51pm
The dollar has exploded higher. Since overtaking the 10,600-mark – the midpoint of the past decade’s range – the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has posted its biggest two-week rally since November 2011.

Japanese Yen Bounce Almost Guaranteed, but at ¥103 or ¥110?
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17 May 2013 at 4:00pm
A Japanese Yen bounce looks almost guaranteed on crystal-clear signs of a sentiment extreme. But timing is the only thing that matters in trading—does that happen at ¥103 or ¥110?

The Dollar’s Surging, but Why Might it Rally Even Further?
by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist
17 May 2013 at 3:00pm
The Dollar has surged to its highest since late 2010. There are some big “ifs”, but if things fall into place the USDOLLAR could rocket even higher.

Gold Plummets 6% Ahead of FOMC Minutes– Bearish Below $1405
by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
17 May 2013 at 2:22pm
Gold remained under substantial pressure this week with the precious metal down nearly 6.4% (its largest decline in four weeks) and further losses are expected as we head into next week.

Sterling Outlook Hinges on BoE Minutes- Higher Low in the Making?
by David Song, Currency Analyst
17 May 2013 at 1:55pm
The British Pound failed to maintain the upward trend from earlier this year, with the GBPUSD slipping to a fresh monthly low of 1.5156, but the sterling may regain its footing in the week ahead should the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes further dampen speculation for more quantitative easing.

USD to Consolidate Ahead of FOMC Minutes- AUD Heavily Oversold
by David Song, Currency Analyst
17 May 2013 at 10:00am
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index advanced to a fresh yearly high of 10,816 as the developments coming out of the U.S. economy raised the outlook for growth.

Euro Eyes Fresh 2013 Low on ECB Policy- Pound Rebound on Tap
by David Song, Currency Analyst
17 May 2013 at 6:40am
The EURUSD remains under pressure on Friday as the European Central Bank (ECB) continued to strike a dovish tone for monetary policy.

Euro Finds Strength Despite Significant Decline in Construction Output
by Benjamin Spier,
17 May 2013 at 4:47am
EUROPEAN SESSION UPDATE: BoE’s Weale seems to maintain an anti-dovish view in comments about inflation and growth; USD rally continues…

EUR/USD- Trading the U. of Michigan Confidence Survey
by David Song, Currency Analyst
17 May 2013 at 2:00am
The U.S. dollar may track higher over the next 24-hours of trading as the U. of Michigan survey is expected to show a rebound in household sentiment.

Forex: Dollar Avoids Tumble but Market More Critical of Fed’s QE3 Talk
by John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
16 May 2013 at 11:07pm
There was a bevy of Fed speakers this past session, but growing support of ‘tapering’ the central bank’s stimulus program (QE3) didn’t seem to generate much additional strength for the greenback.

U.S. Dollar Volatile But Higher After Weak Offshore Data, Fed Comments
by Christopher Almeida,
16 May 2013 at 10:06pm
The U.S. Dollar had a volatile but strong week, after weak offshore data saw the currency gain as well as comments by the San Francisco Regional President of the Federal Reserve.

USDOLLAR to Search for Support- GBP Rebound to Accelerate
by David Song, Currency Analyst
16 May 2013 at 9:20am
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index is struggling to hold its ground as the developments coming out of the U.S. economy dampens the outlook for growth and inflation.

 

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From CNN and Money magazine, CNNMoney.com combines business news and in-depth market analysis with practical advice and answers to personal finance questions.


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Facebook IPO: Winners & losers
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