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Making An International Currency Payment

Whether you need to pay a deposit on your holiday accommodation, or even if you just need to transfer Euros to pay your overseas household expenses or monthly bills, you still need to think about how you will make the payments. International Currency Exchange rates alter daily, high street banks do not necessarily offer the best deal and this can have an enormous impact on the amount you will eventually pay.

At, we understand the importance of getting value for money. That is why, after careful research, we formed a partnership with Global Currency Exchange Network (GCEN) to offer you the very best in foreign exchange services. Global Currency Exchange Network eliminates the risk of fluctuating currency rates by fixing the rate in advance of your purchase. GCEN has a thorough understanding and years of experience dealing with clients requiring foreign currency.

Our GCEN online payment gateway ensures that money can be transferred in a safe and secure way with payment being instant. All you need to do is follow the link through to register as a new client, fill out your details including your address, email and of course credit card details. Once a payment has been successful, you will receive an email confirmation for your records as proof of payment. As a registered client you will be entitled to preferential exchange rates for up two years as well being able to buy your currency in advance to ensure the best possible rate, save on fluctuation and of course send money to your overseas account.

To set up an account with the Global Currency Exchange Network please follow the link below:

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Featuring Currency Case Illustrations
Nation - Google News
Nation - Google News
Google News

Election 2015: 100 business leaders sign letter backing the Conservatives ? l...
1 Apr 2015 at 12:23am

The Guardian

Election 2015: 100 business leaders sign letter backing the Conservatives ? live
The Guardian
A Conservative election billboard is blown over in high winds in a field near Ramsgate. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images. Claire Phipps · @claire_phipps. Wednesday 1 April 2015 02.29 EDT Last modified on Wednesday 1 April 2015 02.37 EDT.
Election Live - 1 AprilBBC News
Business leaders fear Labour will 'put recovery at risk'The Times (subscription)
Election 2015: 100 business leaders sign letter showing 'unprecedented' support ...International Business Times UK -Professional Adviser
all 483 news articles »

Plaid Cymru would negotiate in hung election to 'end Tory rule' - Financial T...
31 Mar 2015 at 3:26pm

Financial Times

Plaid Cymru would negotiate in hung election to 'end Tory rule'
Financial Times
Welsh nationalists say they will negotiate with Labour, the Scottish National and the Green parties to ?end Tory rule? if May's general election produces a hung parliament. Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, said the election result was likely to be ...
Plaid Cymru: can they emulate the SNP? - key questionsChannel 4 News
Plaid Cymru Demands Greater Powers For WalesSky News
Election 2015: Plaid leader Leanne Wood at party launchBBC News
South Wales Argus -The Independent
all 46 news articles »

New Scottish property transaction tax comes into effect - BBC News
31 Mar 2015 at 6:21pm

BBC News

New Scottish property transaction tax comes into effect
BBC News
A new tax which changes the way people pay duty on house purchases has come into effect in Scotland. The Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) replaces UK stamp duty under new devolved powers contained in the Scotland Act 2012. The Scottish ...
SNP to 'grab £30m extra a year from its home tax'The Times (subscription)
SNP's stamp duty replacement costs buyers £30mScotsman
John Swinney in £30m tax raid on 'aspiration'
Glasgow South and Eastwood Extra
all 13 news articles »

South Wales Police continue investigation into fatal bus crash - ITV News
31 Mar 2015 at 11:59pm

The Guardian

South Wales Police continue investigation into fatal bus crash
ITV News
South Wales Police is continuing its investigation into a collision where a police officer was killed. Off-duty officer Sergeant Louise Lucas was killed after being hit by a bus on a stretch of road through Swansea City Centre yesterday. Her 8-year-old daughter ...
Off-duty police officer killed and her young daughter left in hospital after bus ...Daily Mail
Pedestrian who died in Swansea bus collision was off-duty sergeantBBC News
Woman killed in bus collisionBelfast Telegraph

all 49 news articles »

Borneo Man To Hang For British Students' Murder - KL.FM 96.7
31 Mar 2015 at 11:12pm


Borneo Man To Hang For British Students' Murder
KL.FM 96.7
A 23-year-old man has been sentenced to death for the killing of two British medical students on the island of Borneo last August. Fishmonger Zulkipli Abdullah faces death by hanging once his appeals has been exhausted. Newcastle University students Neil ...
The News Matrix: Wednesday 1 April 2015The Independent
Murderer of British medical students to hangThe Times (subscription)
Malaysian sentenced to death for murdering studentsScotsman (blog)
all 203 news articles »

Heroin addict admits to killing Sophie, 11 - Glasgow Evening Times
31 Mar 2015 at 10:07pm

Scottish Daily Record

Heroin addict admits to killing Sophie, 11
Glasgow Evening Times
A JUNKIE killed a schoolgirl in a horror hit and run while he was out on bail. Rebecca Gray Crime Reporter. Wednesday 01/04/2015. Loading Comments · Share. Print. Heroin addict Christopher Hannah mowed down 11-year-old Sophie Brannan when his ...
Tragic Sophie Brannan, 11, killed in hit-and-run horror by ex-property developer ...Scottish Daily Record
Heroin addict was on police bail when he killed an 11-year-old girl in a hit and runDaily Mail
Heroin addict admits killing 11-year-old in hit and runHerald Scotland
Scotsman -The Times (subscription) -BBC News
all 13 news articles »

Missing Boy Taken To Hospital After Being Found - Sky News
31 Mar 2015 at 12:43pm

Missing Boy Taken To Hospital After Being Found
Sky News
Police had been "extremely concerned" for the youngster, who has a genetic condition that requires medication three times a day. 19:42, UK, Tuesday 31 March 2015. Missing boy. Malakhi Chijiutomi-Ghosh has a rare medical condition. Share on Twitter ...
Police locate seriously ill boy, 10, who ran away from
Missing Indian-Origin Boy Found, Admitted to Hospital in UKNDTV
Malakhi Chijiutomi-Ghosh: Missing 10-year-old who 'urgently needs medication ...The Independent
The Guardian
all 163 news articles »

Artist brings giant slides back to London's South Bank - The Guardian
31 Mar 2015 at 11:39am

The Guardian

Artist brings giant slides back to London's South Bank
The Guardian
Carsten Höller's Isomeric Slides, which will form part of the exhibition at the Hayward gallery in London from 10 June. Photograph: Carsten Höller/PA. Press Association. Tuesday 31 March 2015 13.38 EDT Last modified on Tuesday 31 March 2015 19.34 EDT.
Giant slides to return at galleryBrentwood Weekly News

all 51 news articles »

Man 'crashed his 4x4 into tree to kill wife' - The Times (subscription)
31 Mar 2015 at 5:03pm

The Times (subscription)

Man 'crashed his 4x4 into tree to kill wife'
The Times (subscription)
A former church treasurer killed his wife by smashing his 4x4 into a tree at more than 70mph after she was unable to cope with his constant demands for sex, a court has been told. Ian Walters, who was also a driving test examiner, ploughed his Mitsubishi ...
'Sex obsessed' church treasurer 'murdered wife by ploughing 4x4 into tree off M1'Metro
'Sex mad husband killed wife' by deliberately crashing car, court
Church treasurer killed wife in car crash after she 'couldn't cope with his sexual
Western Daily Press
all 51 news articles »

Illegal immigrant Naseer Chawki jailed for Tube sex attacks to get £7000 payo...
31 Mar 2015 at 4:07pm

Daily Mail

Illegal immigrant Naseer Chawki jailed for Tube sex attacks to get £7000 payout
Daily Mail
An illegal immigrant who committed 'revolting' sex offences on the London Underground could receive a £7,000 payout because he was kept in jail for 'too long' while officials tried to deport him. Naseer Chawki, who claims to be 34 and from Iran, was ...
Damages for sex assaults immigrantBelfast Telegraph
Illegal immigrant convicted of "revolting" sex offences to get compensation after

all 49 news articles »

Business News
Business News continually updated from thousands of sources around the net.

IBM to invest $3 billion in 'Internet of Things' unit
31 Mar 2015 at 6:20pm

IBM is investing $3 billion to build an "Internet of Things" division aimed at harnessing the massive trove of data collected by smartphones, tablets, connected vehicles and appliances and using it to help companies better manage their businesses. IBM estimates that 90 percent of all data generated by mobile and "smart" devices is never analyzed.

Thousands ask Congress to overturn net neutrality rules
31 Mar 2015 at 4:15pm

Opponents of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission's new net neutrality rules aren't giving up, with a conservative advocacy group saying it has collected more than 540,000 signatures on a petition asking Congress to overturn the agency's action. American Commitment, a group with connections to Republican billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, delivered those petitions to Congress this week.

U.S. home prices rise modestly, weigh on affordability
31 Mar 2015 at 4:15pm

U.S. home price increases continued to rise at a steady pace in January, as the housing market deals with affordability problems and few properties listed for sale. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 4.6 percent in January compared with 12 months earlier, S&P said Tuesday.

Icahn: Union costs helped kill 4 Atlantic City casinos
31 Mar 2015 at 1:00pm

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn says a big reason four of Atlantic City's 12 casinos closed last year is the "exorbitant" payments they had to make to a union-run health insurance fund and an underfunded pension plan. Icahn told The Associated Press on Tuesday that Local 54 of the Unite-HERE union "is one of the main contributors to the problems in Atlantic City."

What you need to know about Microsofta s cheaper Surface Pro 3 tablet
31 Mar 2015 at 10:00am

Microsoft is making a cheaper version of its Surface Pro 3 tablet computer in an effort to reach students and budget-conscious families. Graphic artists, engineers and finance professionals needing to run complex software might still want the company's higher-end Pro 3, said Dennis Meinhardt, director of program management for Surface.

04/01: People on move
31 Mar 2015 at 9:00am

Submit professional appointments, management-level promotions and significant awards for individuals , along with photos, online at

Federal Agents Charged With Cyber Theft
31 Mar 2015 at 9:00am

The U.S. Dept. of Justice has charged a former special agent at the Drug Enforcement Administration and a former special agent at the U.S. Secret Service with stealing digital currency during a federal investigation into the Silk Road web marketplace, an underground black market that let users conduct criminal transactions over the Internet.

GM ignition switch death toll rises to 77
31 Mar 2015 at 6:56am

Families of at least 77 people killed in crashes caused by defective General Motors ignition switches will get compensation from the company. Attorney Kenneth Feinberg , who was hired by GM to compensate victims, updated the total Monday.

JetBlue computer outage causes delays for passengers
31 Mar 2015 at 2:36am

In this May 15, 2014 photo, a JetBlue Airways Airbus A320-232 pushes back from the gate at the Tampa International Airport in Tampa , Fla. A computer outage that caused delays for thousands of JetBlue Airways passengers early Monday, March 30, 2015, has been resolved, the company said.

The way forward for NeuStar: Coming out of the shadow of the LNP dispute
30 Mar 2015 at 10:31pm

The Federal Communications Commission voted last week to recommend awarding a contract worth roughly half the company's revenue to rival Telcordia Technologies , thus concluding a controversial two-year bidding process. The battle isn't quite over - the path is clear for appeals, lawsuits and further ugliness - but NeuStar is already shifting gears toward becoming a very different kind of company.

U.S. Fed's Fischer offers framework for regulating shadow banks
30 Mar 2015 at 6:20pm

A top U.S. Federal Reserve official on Monday suggested stress tests and certain capital requirements to contain the risks within the non-bank lending sector, while acknowledging there is little the central bank can do to impose such restrictions. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer offered a framework to more tightly regulate the lending activities of hedge funds, mutual funds and other non-bank entities - often referred to as shadow banks - though he was careful to show that he was offering suggestions and not potential central bank rules.

Brace for More Stock Market Volatility, Strategist Says
30 Mar 2015 at 4:19pm

Your browser is not supported. Please upgrade to one of the following browsers: Google Chrome Mozilla Firefox Apple Safari Microsoft Internet Explorer 8+ You may proceed to the site by clicking here , however some pages might not work correctly.

Like Anita Hill vs. Clarence Thomas, Ellen Pao Lost Kleiner Perkins Gender Fi...
30 Mar 2015 at 1:12pm

NEW YORK -- Before there was Ellen Pao v. Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, there was Anita Hill v.

Horizon is buying Hyperion to grow its orphan disease business unit.
30 Mar 2015 at 9:07am

The all-cash deal values Hyperion at $46 a share, an 8% premium to Friday's close of $42.74. Hyperion had previously been the subject of takeout rumors, pushing its stock price higher ahead of Monday's deal announcement.

Net Neutrality Critics Slam FCC in Hearing
30 Mar 2015 at 5:10am

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission's 3-2 vote in favor of Net neutrality last month hasn't silenced opponents of an open Internet. If anything, the rhetoric from the other side has grown louder and even more heated since the FCC released its 400-page order earlier this month.

BBC News - Business
BBC News - Business
The latest stories from the Business section of the BBC News web site.

Bosses sign letter supporting Tories
1 Apr 2015 at 12:07am
More than 100 company leaders declare support for a Conservative-led government as Labour pledges to end "exploitative" zero-hours contracts.

China factory activity expands again
31 Mar 2015 at 9:31pm
Activity in China's vast manufactory sector picked up unexpectedly in March, according to the official government survey.

Air passenger duty cut from 1 April
31 Mar 2015 at 5:01pm
A number of tax changes come in on 1 April, which will mean cheaper flights for thousands of people who travel over 4,000 miles.

Buffett 'wouldn't raise US rates'
31 Mar 2015 at 3:59pm
The billionaire investor, Warren Buffett, says if he ran the US Federal Reserve, he wouldn't raise interest rates significantly.

EU milk quota system is abolished
31 Mar 2015 at 5:02pm
EU milk quotas are scrapped, bringing an end to more than 30 years of efforts to prevent overproduction.

Scotch whisky exports fall by 7%
31 Mar 2015 at 6:00pm
A decade of strong growth in Scotch whisky exports came to an end last year as overseas sales fell, according to new figures.

Chinese shares up on factory survey
1 Apr 2015 at 12:30am
Chinese shares continue to climb after a government survey suggests that factory activity picked up unexpectedly in March.

HP files $5.1bn Autonomy lawsuit
31 Mar 2015 at 10:40am
HP sues Autonomy co-founder Mike Lynch and ex-finance officer Sushovan Hussain, as Autonomy's former management says it will launch a counter-claim.

UK's growth for 2014 revised up
31 Mar 2015 at 5:19am
The UK's economy grew at a faster pace than initially estimated last year, revised official figures show.

B&Q set to close about 60 stores
31 Mar 2015 at 2:12am
Kingfisher, the owner of DIY chains B&Q and Screwfix, is to close about 60 B&Q stores in UK and Ireland over the next two years.

UK economic well-being 'improving'
31 Mar 2015 at 5:50am
The financial well-being of UK households improved last year, but overall it is not much better than it was five years ago, according to official figures.

Amazon launches home ordering kit
31 Mar 2015 at 2:38pm
In an attempt to attract more household shoppers, Amazon unveils a button for replenish items such as washing powder and razors.

Jay Z promotes music streaming brand
30 Mar 2015 at 11:49pm
Some of the biggest names in entertainment have re-launched the music subscription service Tidal, which they claim will change musical history.

VIDEO: Japan's confidence hit by tax hike
31 Mar 2015 at 11:43pm
Business confidence in Japan flounders as last year's sales tax hike continues to hit sentiment.

VIDEO: Soros: 'Europe is ignoring' Ukraine
31 Mar 2015 at 5:13pm
Europe has its priorities wrong and should be focusing on what is going on in Ukraine, says billionaire investor George Soros.
Financial services company news -
Financial services company news -

GoDaddy prices IPO at $20 a share
31 Mar 2015 at 8:43pm
Loss-making US web domain group to use some proceeds to pay back debt
Investors pour into fixed income funds
31 Mar 2015 at 3:50pm
Why strong equities are an incentive to keep buying bonds
Quindell founder builds stake in broker
31 Mar 2015 at 1:19pm
News of stake comes day after Quindell agrees to sell professional services arm
Investors should question Pru pay
31 Mar 2015 at 12:12pm
Incentives that routinely and reliably pay out fail to do their job
UK brokers cautious ahead of election
31 Mar 2015 at 9:35am
Cenkos Securities and Shore Capital see secondary commissions come under pressure
The door to China?s riches remains locked
31 Mar 2015 at 9:17am
Western investors kept waiting in the courtyard of the energy, rail and telecoms sectors
Euro leveraged loans take on US flavour
31 Mar 2015 at 9:03am
Covenant-lite loans are booming in Europe for the first time
DPI closes Africa fund at $725m
31 Mar 2015 at 6:27am
Decade of high growth and increasing record of returns attracts investors
China to launch deposit insurance in May
31 Mar 2015 at 4:55am
Up to Rmb500,000 to be covered though doubts remain that Beijing would permit bank failure
Business pioneers in finance
31 Mar 2015 at 12:31am
History shows there is nothing like a crisis to focus financiers? minds
China bank chairman extols pay cut
31 Mar 2015 at 12:18am
Salary measures at state companies highlight tension between market reforms and populist pressure
Silk road investigators charged with wire fraud
30 Mar 2015 at 5:57pm
Hundreds of thousands of dollars traced to US agents
Two US agents charged over Silk Road
30 Mar 2015 at 2:03pm
Pair allegedly stole hundreds of thousands of dollars in digital currencies during probe
Merger season looms for Italy?s popolari
30 Mar 2015 at 1:49pm
Deals are in the pipeline as the eurozone?s third-largest economy moves to growth
Dealmakers have fastest start since 2007
30 Mar 2015 at 10:53am
Heinz-Kraft leads trend for large US-based acquisitions
Business News - Markets reports and financial news from Sky
Business News - Markets reports and financial news from Sky
Sky business news provides up to the minute reports on markets, share prices and the world economy, alongside expert business commentary.

More Than 100 Business Leaders Back Tories
1 Apr 2015 at 12:38am
At least five signatories to a letter backing Conservative economic policies are from former Labour supporters.

ASOS Profits Take Hit After Warehouse Fire
1 Apr 2015 at 12:26am
Online fashion retailer ASOS has seen its profits hit after last year's warehouse fire.

Labour To Crack Down On Zero-Hours Contracts
31 Mar 2015 at 11:53pm
Labour leader Ed Miliband is to announce plans to take a tougher stance on zero-hours contracts and improve employees' rights.

UK Economic Growth Almost Tops 2006 Figure
31 Mar 2015 at 7:03am
Revised figures for economic growth last year show the pace almost matched that last seen before the financial meltdown.

M&G Fund Manager Scoops £15m-Plus Pay Deal
31 Mar 2015 at 6:05am
Bond fund manager Richard Woolnough was paid more than £15m by Prudential's M&G last year, Sky News can reveal.

British Tech Start-Up Signals Moulton Backing
31 Mar 2015 at 4:03pm
The venture capitalist will be named on Wednesday as an investor in a UK-based business intelligence firm, Sky News understands.

Vatican Bank Close To Signing Deal With Italy
31 Mar 2015 at 8:48am
Pope Francis' attempts to clean up the Holy See's finances look set to see a deal signed with Italy over claims of tax avoidance.

Fashion Firms Join Up To Fight New Luxury Tech
31 Mar 2015 at 4:23am
Two European online rivals join forces amid a warning that tech giants are trying to muscle in on the lucrative luxury sector.

B&Q Owner To Shut 60 Stores Amid Profit Slump
31 Mar 2015 at 1:34am
B&Q owner Kingfisher says fewer items will be available in stores as it shuts less profitable outlets.

Honda Makes Swindon Global Hub For Civic Cars
31 Mar 2015 at 3:47am
The Wiltshire plant becomes the global hub for making a new Civic model, but CR-V crossovers will in future be made in Canada.
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Loonie and Aussie Share Downward Bond
by Adam Kritzer
30 Jun 2011 at 9:15am

In yesterday’s post (Tide is Turning for the Aussie), I explained how a prevailing sense of uncertainty in the markets has manifested itself in the form of a declining Australian Dollar. With today’s post, I’d like to carry that argument forward to the Canadian Dollar.

As it turns out, the forex markets are currently treating the Loonie and the Aussie as inseparable. According to, the AUD/USD and CAD/USD are trading with a 92.5% correlation, the second highest in forex (behind only the CHFUSD and AUDUSD). The fact that the two have been numerically correlated (see chart below) for the better part of 2011 can also be discerned with a cursory glance at the charts above.

Why is this the case? As it turns out, there are a handful of reasons. First of all, both have earned the dubious characterization of “commodity currency,” which basically means that a rise in commodity prices is matched by a proportionate appreciation in the Aussie and Loonie, relative to the US dollar. You can see from the chart above that the year-long commodities boom and sudden drop corresponded with similar movement in commodity currencies. Likewise, yesterday’s rally coincided with the biggest one-day rise in the Canadian Dollar in the year-to-date.

Beyond this, both currencies are seen as attractive proxies for risk. Even though the chaos in the eurozone has very little actual connection to the Loonie and Aussie (which are fiscally sound, geographically distinct, and economically insulated from the crisis), the two currencies have recently taken their cues from political developments in Greece, of all things. Given the heightened sensitivity to risk that has arisen both from the sovereign debt crisis and global economic slowdown, it’s no surprise that investors have responded cautiously by unwinding bets on the Canadian dollar.

Finally, the Bank of Canada is in a very similar position to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Both central banks embarked on a cycle of monetary tightening in 2010, only to suspend rate hikes in 2011, due to uncertainty over near-term growth prospects. While GDP growth has indeed moderated in both countries, price inflation has not. In fact, the most recent reading of Canadian CPI was 3.7%, which is well above the BOC’s comfort zone. Further complicating the picture is the fact that the Loonie is near a record high, and the BOC remains wary of further stoking the fires of appreciation by making it more attractive to carry traders.

In the near-term, then, the prospects for further appreciation are not good. The currency’s rise was so solid in 2009-2010 that it now seems the forex markets may have gotten ahead of themselves. A pullback towards parity – and beyond – seems like the only realistic possibility. If/when the global economy stabilizes, central banks resume heightening, and risk appetite increases, you can be sure that the Loonie (and the Aussie) will pick up where they left off.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Tide is Turning for the Aussie due to lower commodity prices, low interest ra...
by Adam Kritzer
29 Jun 2011 at 10:40am

“Australia is about to enter a boom that should last decades…The Australian dollar is unlikely to go back to where it was, and manufacturing will shrink in importance to the economy, perhaps even faster than it has been.” This, according to Martin Parkinson, Treasury Minister of Australia. While 30 years from now, Mr. Parkinson’s prognosis might probe to be accurate, I’m not so sure it applies to the period 3 months from now. Here’s why:

First of all, the putative economic boom that is taking place in Australia is being driven entirely by high commodity prices and surging production and exports. Since peaking at the end of April, commodity prices have fallen mightily. You can see from the chart above that there continues to exist a tight correlation between the AUD/USD and commodities prices. As commodities prices have fallen over the last two months, so has the Australian Dollar.

In addition, while demand will probably remain strong over the long-term, it may very well slacken over the short-term, due to declining economic growth across the industrialized world.  Consider also that Australia’s largest market for commodity exports – China – may have difficulty sustaining a GDP growth rate of 10%, and at the very least, new fixed-asset investment (which necessitates demand for raw materials) will temporarily peak in the immediate future.

Finally, the mining sector directly accounts for only 8% of Australia’s economy, which means that only to a limited extent to high commodities prices contribute to the bottom line of Australian GDP. This notion is reinforced by the 1.2% economic contraction in the second quarter – the biggest decline in 20 years – and the fact that GDP is basically flat over the last three quarters. Many non-mining economic indicators are sagging, and the number of corporate bankruptcies is 10% higher than in 2010. In the end, then, the ebb and flow of Australia’s fortune depends less on commodities, and more on other sectors.

Mr. Parkinson’s optimistic forecasts might also be undermined in the short-term by a looser-than-expected monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia last hiked its benchmark interest rate in November 2010, and may not hike again for a few more months due to moderating economic growth and proportionally moderate inflation. Given that an attractive interest rate differential may be driving some of the speculative activity that has girded the Aussie’s rise, a decline in this differential could likewise propel it downward.

That’s because anecdotal reports suggest that the Australian Dollar remains a popular long currency for carry traders, funded by shorting the US Dollar, and to a lesser extent, Japanese Yen. Given that many of these carry trades are heavily leveraged, it wouldn’t take much to trigger a short squeeze and a rapid decline in the AUD/USD. For evidence of this phenomenon, one has to look no further back than May 2010, when the Aussie fell 10-15% in only three weeks.

Ultimately, as one commentator recently pointed out, the Aussie’s 70% rise since 2008 might better be seen as US Dollar weakness (which also catalyzed the rise in commodity prices). The apparent stabilizing of the dollar, then, might let some air out of the currency down under.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Emerging Market Currencies Brace for Correction Due to Market Uncertainty and...
by Adam Kritzer
28 Jun 2011 at 2:42am

“It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair,” begins Charles Dickens’ The Tale of Two Cities. In 2011, the winter of despair was followed by the spring of uncertainty. Due to the earthquake/tsunami in Japan, the continued tribulations of Greece, rising commodity prices, and growing concern over the global economic recovery, volatility in the forex markets has risen, and investors are unclear as to how to proceed. For now at least, they are responding by dumping emerging market currencies.

As you can see from the chart above (which shows a cross-section of emerging market forex), most currencies peaked in the beginning of May and have since sold-off significantly. If not for the rally that started off the year, all emerging market currencies would probably be down for the year-to-date, and in fact many of them are anyway. Still, the returns for even the top performers are much less spectacular than in 2009 and 2010. Similarly, the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index is down 3.5% in the YTD, and the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI+) has risen 4.5% (which is reflects declining growth forecasts as much as perceptions of increasing creditworthiness).

There are a couple of factors that are driving this ebbing of sentiment. First of all, risk appetite is waning. Over the last couple months, every flareup in the eurozone debt crisis coincided with a sell-off in emerging markets. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Central and eastern European currencies that are seen as being most vulnerable to financial turmoil in the euro zone have underperformed.” Economies further afield, such as Turkey and Russia, have also experienced weakness in their respective currencies. Some analysts believe that because emerging economies are generally more fiscally sound than their fundamental counterparts, that they are inherently less risky. Unfortunately, while this proposition makes theoretical sense, you can be assured that a default by a member of the eurozone will trigger a mass exodus into safe havens – NOT into emerging markets.

While emerging market Asia and South America is somewhat insulated from eurozone fiscal problems. On the other hand, they remain vulnerable to an economic slowdown in China and to rising inflation. Emerging market central banks have avoided making significant interest rate hikes (hence, rising bond prices) – for fear of inviting further capital inflow and stoking currency appreciation – and the result has been rising price inflation. You can see from the chart above that the darkest areas (symbolizing higher inflation) are all located in emerging economic regions. While high inflation is not inherently problematic, it is not difficult to conceive of a downward spiral into hyperinflation. Again, a sudden bout of monetary instability would send investors rushing to the exits.

While most analysts (myself included) remain bullish on emerging markets over the long-term, many are laying off in the short-term. “RBC emerging market strategist Nick Chamie says his team has recommended ‘defensive posturing’ to clients since May 5 and isn’t recommending new bullish emerging currency bets right now….HSBC said Thursday that it isn’t recommending outright short positions on emerging market currencies to clients but suggested a more ‘cautious’ and selective approach in making currency bets.” This phenomenon will be exacerbated by the fact that market activity typically slows down in the summer chart above courtesy of Forex Magnates) as traders go on vacation. With less liquidity and an inability to constantly monitor one’s portfolio, traders will be loathe to take on risky positions.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend NO QE3: What are the Implications for the Dollar?
by Adam Kritzer
25 Jun 2011 at 7:28am

The verdict is nearly in; there will be no QE3. The second round of quantitative easing (?QE2?) will expire at the end of this month, and while it will not be unwound for quite some time, the Fed has indicated that it will not be followed by yet another round. The question on the minds of forex traders, of course, is what does this mean for the Dollar?

In his most recent press conference, Ben Bernanke, himself, indicated that QE3 was unlikely. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News, the majority of FX analysts (65%) believe him. Simply, the circumstances don?t support further easing. To be sure, the unemployment rate remains high, and the economy is teetering on the verge of double-dip recession. However, the last two rounds did little to address either of these problems, and companies have hoarded cash rather than investing in new plant and workers.

Interest rates are still hovering around record lows, and there isn?t anything to be gained from trying to lower them further. Besides, given that inflation is now above 3% ? due to an explosion in good and energy prices ? QE3 would simply be too risky. Economist Ken Goldstein summarized the situation as follows: “We will come to the end of QE2 and largely we mark about how little happened when it ended and that?s also an argument about why there may not be persuasive argument to do a QE3.”

On the other hand, there are some analysts who think that QE3 is inevitable (29%). PIMCO?s Bill Gross, manager of the world?s biggest bond fund, recently indicated that, ?Next Jackson Hole in August will likely hint at QE3/interest rate caps.? (Personally, I think that he?s probably just bitter that his forecast of a decline in Treasury Bond prices hasn?t materialized). One columnist wrote that the Fed?s arm will be twisted by the ongoing collapse of the housing market, while others have argued that the recent decline in the S&P 500 will spur the Fed into action. Most of us, however, believe that the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach before ultimately conceding that more easing is necessary.

For now at least, then, the prevailing assumption is that there will not be a QE3. As for how forex markets have digested this news, they have taken it in stride. The Dollar is now holding its value, and as I wrote in a previous post, it may even have bottomed out. Of course, it doesn?t hurt that the Euro is being punished by another flare-up in the sovereign debt crisis and investors are getting nervous about bubbles in emerging market currencies, all of which provide support for the dollar.

The fact that QE2 will soon end without having triggered financial apocalypse or hyperinflation ? as some cassandras initially predicted ? is something that is worth nothing. Of course, the proceeds of QE1 and QE2 will be recycled indefinitely into the markets, and forex investors can?t completely put quantitative easing behind them. Still, that there won’t be any more additional cash injected into commodities markets and emerging economy asset markets means that one of the main sources of downward pressure on the dollar has been eliminated.

Ironically, it is possible that the unveiling of QE3 could actually cause the dollar to rally. The reason is that there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the markets, which provides the dollar with some safe haven demand. If the Fed were to concede that all is not well on the economic front and respond by more money printing, it could drive some safe haven flows into the US, even to the extent that it would overwhelm outflows driven by concerns over inflation.

Personally, I think the dollar will continue to hold its value, and perhaps even appreciate slightly in the near-term, as forex markets dither over the way forward. SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Swiss Franc is the Only Safe Haven Currency. The Franc is Starting to Distanc...
by Adam Kritzer
23 Jun 2011 at 10:11am

According to conventional market wisdom, there are three safe haven currencies: the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and US Dollar. It is to these currencies that investors flock whenever there is a crisis, or merely an outbreak of uncertainty, and for much of the period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the three were closely correlated. As you can see from the chart below, however, one of these currencies has begun to distinguish itself from the other two, leading some to argue that there is now only one true safe haven currency: the Swiss Franc.

What’s not to like about the Franc? It boasts a strong economy, low inflation, and low unemployment. Unlike the US and Japan, Switzerland is not plagued by a high national debt and perennial budget deficits. Its monetary policy has been extremely conservative: no quantitative easing, asset-purchases, or any other money printing programs with euphemistic names.

Ironically, the only thing that makes investors nervous about the franc is that it has already risen so much. Remember when it reached the milestone of parity against the dollar in 2010? Since then, it has appreciated by an additional 20%, and seems to breach a new record on an almost weekly basis. The same goes for the CHF/EUR and CHF/JPY. The President of Switzerland’s export association is expecting further gains: “Parity is a realistic scenario. Given the indebtedness of the eurozone and the strong attraction of the franc, the euro is likely to continue to lose value.”

Given that Swiss exports have surged in spite of (or even because of) the rising Franc, however, he has very little to worry about at the moment. As you can see fromt he graphic below (courtesy of the Financial Times), the balance of trade continues to expand, and has exploded in a handful of key sectors. To be sure, economists expect that this situation will eventually correct itself and are already moving to revise downward 2011 and 2012 GDP growth estimates. Then again, they made the same erroneous predictions in 2010.

The main variable in the Swiss Franc is the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Having booked a loss of CHF 20 Billion from failed intervention in 2010, the SNB is not in a position to make the same mistake again. In fact, SNB President Philipp Hildebrand has not even stooped to verbal intervention this time around, undoubtedly cognizant of the fact that he has very little credibility in forex markets.

At the same time, the SNB is not in any hurry to raise interest rates, lest it stoke further speculative interest in the Franc. Its June meeting came and went without any indication of when it might tighten. Interest rate futures currently reflect an expectation that the first rate hike won’t come until March 2012. Thus, the downside of holding the Franc is that it will continue to pay a negative real interest rate. The only upside, then, is the possibility of further appreciation. Fortunately, the SNB is unlikely to stop the Franc from rising, since it serves the same monetary end as higher interest rates. In other words, a more valuable Franc serves as a direct check on inflation because it lowers the cost of commodity imports and should (eventually) soften demand for Swiss exports.

It is possible that the Swiss Franc will suffer a correction at some point, if only because it rose by such a large margin in such a short period of time. On the other hand, given that its economy has proved its ability to withstand the Franc’s appreciation, it’s no wonder that investors continue to bet on its rise.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Is it Possible to Trade Forex Part-time?
by Adam Kritzer
22 Jun 2011 at 10:17am

This week, I came across an article in the San Francisco Gate (which, incidentally, has really ramped up its forex coverage over the last year) that addressed this very topic. Given that part-time forex traders probably outnumber those that practice the craft full-time, such an article was long overdue.

In sum, the author advises part-time traders to concentrate their trading during the busiest times of the day, or failing that, to simply trade the most active currency pairs during the period of the day that one happens to have time to trade. For example, if you wish to trade the USD/EUR but only have a limited amount of time to do so, you are advised to trade the opening of the New York and/or London sessions, at 8AM EST and 3AM EST, respectively. Alternatively, if you only have time to trade from midnight to 2am, for example, you are advised to trade currency pairs in which the quote currency is the Yen, because during that time the Tokyo session is “in full swing.”

Alas, this kind of strategy is based on a very dubious assumption, which is that you should aim to trade the currency pairs which are both the most liquid and most volatile (ignore the contradiction here), because this will yield the most profits. In other words, it’s easy to capture profits when trading pairs that tend to bounce around a lot and which are cheap and easy to buy and sell. Right?

If you read the Forex Blog with any regularity and are ware that my bend is towards fundamental analysis, it’s probably already obvious to you that I don’t think this is necessarily the case. Consider that forex is a zero-sum game. In other words, on average, 50% of traders win and 50% lose. [When you account for trading costs (i.e. spreads), its probably closer to 30% win and 70% lose, but let’s ignore this for the sake of argument]. Thus, the way I see it, a trader that enters the market during the busiest times has the same chance of winning (~50%) as a different trader that enters the market during the least busy time of day. Either way you cut it, someone has to win and someone has to lose, and no amount of liquidity or volatility can rectify this situation.

Thus, my advice for part-time traders is to forget trading altogether. If you don’t have the time to constantly monitor the market, pore over charts, and develop technical strategy, the odds of winning are pretty low. On the other hand, why not shift your focus from trading to investing? Trading is difficult under the best of circumstances and even more difficult when you don’t have enough time to make a real commitment.

The only way around this is to shift your time horizon from minutes to days – or even weeks. This way, it won’t matter when you have time to trade. Spreads might be marginally higher (as evidenced in the spikes in he chart above, which shows how spreads fluctuate over time) for the USD/EUR at midnight than at 8am, but if you’re planning on holding the pair for more than 10 seconds (and your target profit is greater than 15 pips), this is basically irrelevant.

This way, you also don’t have to worry about carefully planning your entry and exit into positions. Entering a swing trade with a targeted profit of 500pips is probably just as good at 4am as it is at 7am, all else being equal. While this doesn’t necessarily increase the odds of success (above 50%), at least it gives you a great deal more flexibility in being a part-time trader.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Japanese Yen In "No Man's Land." When will the BOJ Intervene to stop its rise?
by Adam Kritzer
20 Jun 2011 at 8:52am

This, according to a hedge fund manager that has decided to cancel all of his fund’s bearish bets on the Japanese Yen. The reason: the yen is rising, and it’s unclear when – or even if – the government will intervene to push it back down. Even though the yen’s strength is fundamentally illogical, it seems that investors are growing increasingly wary of betting against it.

As I pointed out in my previous post on the Yen (“Japanese Yen Strength is Illogical, but Does it Matter?“), the yen has actually fallen over the last twelve months, on a correlation weighted basis (though to be fair, it has staged a pretty impressive comeback since the beginning of April). Unfortunately, investors mainly care about how it is performing against a handful of key currencies, namely the US Dollar. Simply, the yen continues to rise against the dollar, and it is unclear when it will stop.

Japanese government analysis has indeed confirmed that “speculators” are behind the strong yen, as the alleged wide-scale repatriation of yen by Japanese insurance companies has yet to materialize. Of course, there isn’t really much doubt: Japan’s economy is contracting, due to decrease in output spurred by the tsunami. In May, it recorded its second largest monthly trade deficit ever.

Meanwhile, interest rates and bond yields are pathetically low, and the Bank of Japan is being urged to expand its asset buying program, which would theoretically result in a devaluation of the yen. As  a result, retail Japanese forex traders (nicknamed “Mrs. Watanabes“) have resumed shorting the Yen as part of a carry trade strategy.

Alas, speculators either don’t share their pessimism or are running out of patience. While everyone continues to assume that the BOJ will intervene if the Yen rises to 80 against the dollar, no one can be sure whether the line in the sand might not be 78 or even 75. At this point, intervention seems to hinge more on politics than on economics, which means predicting it is beyond the scope of this post. In other words, “There is too much uncertainty and volatility in markets right now to make that yen trade appealing.” And sure enough, the most recent Commitments of Traders data shows that speculators have been re-building their yen long positions over the last month.

In the end, the speculators are probably right. The Bank of Japan has intervened twice over the last twelve months, and the impact has always been short-lived. Besides, given that many speculators still remain committed to shorting the yen, it remains extraordinarily vulnerable to the kind of short squeeze that sent it soaring 5% in a single session en route to the record high it touched in March.

I’m personally still bearish on the yen, but I also think it’s too risky to short it against the dollar, which seems to be declining for its own reasons. As you can see from the chart below, the yen has fallen against virtually every other major currency. Yen shorters, then, might be wise to avoid the dollar altogether and focus instead on any number of other currencies. SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Forex Volatility Continues Rising. What are the Implications for the Euro?
by Adam Kritzer
17 Jun 2011 at 9:38am

This week witnessed another flareup in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. As a result, volatility in the EUR/USD pair surged, by some measures to a record high. Even though the Euro rallied yesterday and today, this suggests that investors remain nervous, and that going forward, the euro could embark on a steep decline.

There are a couple of forex volatility indexes. The JP Morgan G7 Volatility Index is based on the implied volatility in 3-month currency options and is one of the broadest measures of forex volatility. As you can see from the chart above, the index is closing in on year-to-date high (excluding the spike in March caused by the Japanese tsunami), and is generally entrenched in an upward trend. Barring day-to-day spikes, however, it will take months to confirm the direction of this trend.

For specific volatility measurements, there is no better source of data than (whose founder, Arnaud Jeulin, I interviewed only last month). Here, you can find data on more than 30 currency pairs, charted across multiple time periods. You can see for the EUR/USD pair in particular that volatility is now at the highest point in 2011 and is closing in on a two-year high.

Meanwhile, the so-called risk-reversal rate for Euro currency options touched 3.1, which is greater than the peak of the credit crisis. This indicator represents a proxy for investor concerns that the Euro will collapse suddenly, and its high level suggests that this is indeed a growing concern. In addition, implied volatility in options contracts has jumped dramatically over the last week, which confirms that investors expect the euro to move dramatically over the next month.

What does all of this mean? In a nutshell, it shows that panic is rising in the forex markets. Last month, I used this notion as a basis for arguing that the dollar safe-haven trade will make a come-back. This would still seem to be the case, and should also benefit the Swiss Franc, which is nearing an all-time high against the euro. Naturally, it also implies that forex investors remain extremely concerned about a continued decline in the euro, and are rushing to hedge their exposure and/or close out long positions altogether. suggests that this could make the EUR/USD an interesting pair to trade, since large swings in either direction will necessarily create opportunities for traders. While I have no opinion on such indiscriminate trading [I prefer to make directional bets based on fundamentals], I must nonetheless acknowledge the logic of such a strategy. SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Euro Nears Breaking Point
by Adam Kritzer
16 Jun 2011 at 8:33am

It’s deja vu all over again in the forex markets as another twist in the sovereign debt crisis has sent the euro tumbling by the greatest margin in nearly a year. It was only last month that I posted “The Euro (Still) has a Greek Problem,” and yet, forex markets are once again reacting to the possibility of a Greek default as thought it were a new development. At the very least, investors finally seem to be acknowledging the inevitable.

There have been several factors at work in this latest episode. On Monday, S&P downgraded its credit rating for Greece to CCC, following on a similar move by Moody’s. That means that Greece’s sovereign credit rating is now the lowest in the world, behind such eminent economies as Grenada and Ecuador. While the move was hardly noteworthy in itself, it represents one more straw on the camel’s back.

Greece’s government is increasingly unstable, and Prime Minister George Papandreou has become so desperate that he has suggested forming an alliance with Greece’s most powerful opposition party. Meanwhile, violent riots outside Greek Parliament have reportedly become a daily occurrence, as the Greek populace has proven unwilling to accept wage cuts and tax increases.

As if that weren’t enough, there is tremendous uncertainty surrounding the next stage of the Greek bailout. No one can agree on what amount to give and what should be stipulated in return. Some parties think that private investors should be involved in the bailout by taking a “haircut” on the bonds that they own. Some members of the eurozone are balking about contributing any funds at all, wary of justifying it to their own citizens and that it is merely forestalling the inevitable.

I think the NYTimes offered the best summary: “Funding fatigue is growing in the north European creditor countries, especially Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria, just as austerity fatigue is mounting in Greece.” When you consider that Greek interest rates and credit default swap spreads have surged to record highs, it seems that default is really inevitable. If the IMF and European Union are so determined, they can push off default until 2013. Still, default now or default then is still default.

At this point, then, the only real question is what happens when Greece defaults. Will it be forced to leave the Eurozone? Will that push the rest of the Eurozone fringe closer towards default? Will the Euro collapse and cease to exist as a currency? What will happen then?

Unfortunately, I think the answer to all of these questions is yes. At the very least, Greece will be forced out of the eurozone. Bondholders will push interest rates in Ireland, Spain, and Portugal up to double-digit levels, trapping them in the same cycle in which Greece is currently ensnared. Given the exposure of French and German banks to the sovereign debt of financially troubled eurozone members, they will also require state bailouts, and so on.

In a recent op-ed published in The Financial Times, celebrity economies Nouriel Roubini argued that the only way to avoid a complete eurozone meltdown is if the euro depreciates rapidly “to restore competitiveness to the periphery” or if the European Union is able to rapidly achieve complete fiscal and economic union. Roubini argues that the former is difficult because of the ECB’s hawkishness, while the latter is precluded by political hurdles that remain too formidable to overcome.

As Greece inches ever closer to default, the markets will increasingly become gripped by utter uncertainty over the questions that I posed above. Central Banks will stop accumulating euro-denominated assets, and investment funds will similarly shun Europe. (In fact, there is already evidence that this is happening). While European interest rates are attractive relative to the rest of the G4, they are hardly enough to compensate investors for this uncertainty. And when the markets come to terms with this, the euro might finally reach its breaking point.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend S&P 500 Decouples from Euro?
by Adam Kritzer
14 Jun 2011 at 9:58am

While I have written quite about forex correlations in recent posts, the focus has primarily been on correlations that exist between currencies. In this post, I would like to address a correlation that exists between currencies and other forex markets- specifically the relationship between the Euro and US stocks.

If you look at the chart above, you can see that an unmistakable correlation exists between the S&P500 and the EUR/USD that stretches back at least six months. Generally speaking, when the EURUSD has risen, so has the S&P 500, and vice versa. In fact, this correlation is so airtight that one analyst recently discovered that the two financial vehicles often reach intra-day highs and lows within minutes of one another!

Why is this the case? In a nutshell, it is because the Euro – especially relative to the dollar – is a proxy for risk appetite. The same is necessarily true for US stocks. When investors are confident in the strength of the global economic recovery and the possibility of crisis is distant, the euro will rise. This has nothing to do with fundamentals in Europe, which are probably at least as bad as they are in the US. Of course, it may be connected with dollar weakness, since it is arguably the case that quantitative easing has both depressed the dollar and buoyed US stocks.

As I intimated in the title of this post, however, the S&P recently decoupled from the euro. Since the beginning of June, US equities have declined sharply, to the extent that they have given back most of their gains in the year-to-date. The EUR/USD, meanwhile, continued rising all the way until last week. While this has happened on a couple previous occasions, this was perhaps the sharpest break between the two.

I’m personally at a loss to explain why this happened. It has been conjectured that the driving force behind the correlation is algorithmic trading, and that hence, it must also represent the source of the break. In other words, high-frequency traders – which account for an ever-increasing proportion of forex volume – tweaked their trading algorithms so as not to buy the S&P 500 when the EURUSD rises, and vice versa.

It’s probably also the case that S&P 500 was falling for endogenous reasons- specifically a decline in GDP growth and earnings expectations which need not necessarily reflect itself in a stronger euro. In fact, in a normal functioning market, you would expect an inverse correlation; strong US economic fundamentals should translate into both a strong dollar and rising stocks. Could it be that worsening fundamentals are manifesting themselves in the form of a weak dollar and weak stocks?

Alas, the correlation has re-established itself over the last week, which means this is largely a moot issue. At the very least, it’s still worth being aware of, both insofar as it remains intact and in the event that it breaks down again.

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EURAUD Scalps Target Weekly Opening Range- Longs at Risk Sub-1.4175
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EURAUD has responded to key near-term resistance with the weekly opening range taking shape just below. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

USD/CAD Congestion Ahead- AUD/USD Support at Risk on Dismal China PMI
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Next Leg Lower in EUR-crosses in Focus after Weaker CPI
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Short-term technicals are realigning with longer-term bearish inclinations across the EUR-complex.

Euro Bears at Risk on Sticky CPI- Outlook Remains Bearish Below 1.10
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Euro, Aussie Dollar May Rise as Yen Falls on Greece Funding Deal
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Top Events this Week Include EZ CPI, Canadian GDP, and US NFPs
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Scalp Webinar: USD Defends Support Slope- Bulls at Risk Ahead of NFP
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Euro to Look Past German CPI, Focus on Greece Funding Woes
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Euro Relief Rally May Hit Wall as Market Refocuses on EZ CPI, US NFPs
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Forecast: Dollar Faces NFPs, Euro Anticipating Greece and Risk Languishes
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The week ahead of us will be driven by both frenetic speculative views and distinct event risk.

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The Dollar came dangerously close to a nasty speculative spill this past week.

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The Australian Dollar is at the mercy of risk appetite trends in the week ahead as Greece fights to secure bailout funding and payrolls data informs Fed rate hike bets.

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China scores a victory over Asia bank tussle
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Federal Agents Charged With Cyber Theft

31 Mar 2015 at 8:02am  A former special agent at the Drug Enforcement Administration and a former special agent at the U.S. Secret Service have been charged by the Justice Department with stealing digital currency.    


Currency volatility set to continue

30 Mar 2015 at 6:56pm  A noticeable feature of foreign exchange markets this year has been much greater uncertainty and volatility, writes Oliver Mangan .


Federal agents charged with stealing digital currency during Silk Road invest...

30 Mar 2015 at 6:31pm  Two former federal agents were charged with fraud in the theft of digital currency during an investigation into an online black market known as Silk Road that let users buy and sell drugs and other illegal items, authorities said Monday.


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