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Nation - Google News
Nation - Google News
Google News

Lawmaker who called for Israel boycott attacked in London - Reuters UK
30 Aug 2014 at 3:58am

Reuters UK

Lawmaker who called for Israel boycott attacked in London
Reuters UK
LONDON (Reuters) - An outspoken lawmaker who declared an "Israel-free zone" in a northern English city suffered a suspected broken jaw in an attack believed to be linked to his support for the Palestinians, his party said on Saturday. George Galloway, who ...
George Galloway taken to hospital after street attackBBC News
George Galloway injured in street attackU.TV
George Galloway suffers suspected broken jaw after attack in
Asian Image -The Independent -Irish Independent
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David Cameron: 'Britain will be fighting terror threat from Islamic State for...
30 Aug 2014 at 4:05am

The Independent

David Cameron: 'Britain will be fighting terror threat from Islamic State for decades'
The Independent
Britain faces a terrorist threat lasting for decades, David Cameron has warned, as the official alert level was raised due to events in Iraq and Syria. The Prime Minister announced new laws to give the authorities greater powers to seize the passports of ...
Anti-terror laws to be tightened as threat level risesBelfast Telegraph
Britain put on alert of 'highly likely' attack by terrorist groupsIrish Independent
Going back before going forward: learning from Iraq and SyriaHITC
Lincolnshire Echo -ITV News -Huffington Post UK
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George Osborne sees bills at Dorneywood rise to £83000 -
30 Aug 2014 at 12:32am

George Osborne sees bills at Dorneywood rise to £83000
George Osborne could do worse than get in touch with the family firm ? Osborne & Little ? and see if they could give him a special rate for sprucing up Dorneywood. Mandrake is sure that it has nothing to do with the sort of people that the Chancellor has been ...
Anger grows over Osborne's freebie mansionMorning Star Online
George Osborne 'has something to hide' after failing to reveal guest-list at
Osborne Under Fire Over Dorneywood Guest ListSky News
The Courier
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Rotherham: Police 'would not investigate child abuse for fear of breaching .....
30 Aug 2014 at 12:01am

Rotherham: Police 'would not investigate child abuse for fear of breaching ...
A mother who found 125 names of potential sex abusers on her daughter's mobile phone has claimed she was told by police in Rotherham it would be a breach of the girl's human rights if they investigated. South Yorkshire Police failed to act despite the girl's ...
Mother found names of 125 potential sex abusers on daughter's mobile phone ...Daily Mail
Rotherham abuse report 'laid bare' our failings - police chiefThe Star
Rotherham police officers could face action over grooming scandalYorkshire Post
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Banned chemicals in loom bands - Belfast Telegraph
30 Aug 2014 at 4:02am

The Guardian

Banned chemicals in loom bands
Belfast Telegraph
One of the UK's leading toy stores has taken loom band charms off its shelves after they were found to contain potentially harmful chemicals. Also in this Section. Towie star Argent 'safe and well' · Abused paralysed by 'shame culture' · PM 'nervous' as ...
Loom band charms withdrawn nationwide after testing positive for cancerous ...The Independent
Toy chain removes loom bands from shelves after child craze found to contain ...Scottish Daily Record
Loom charms taken off sale after scareHerald Scotland -BBC News -Metro
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Cameron, Darling talk of silent majority afraid to speak out in indyref debat...
30 Aug 2014 at 4:00am

Herald Scotland

Cameron, Darling talk of silent majority afraid to speak out in indyref debate
Herald Scotland
David Cameron and Alistair Darling have both cited groups afraid to enter the indyref debate for fear of retribution from the Scottish Government. David Cameron and Alistair Darling have both cited groups afraid to enter the indyref debate for fear of retribution ...
Salmond: Jobs gap in No camp's 'more powers' offerScotsman
Referendum roll of honour: You must be registered to vote by Tuesday or your ...Scottish Daily Record
DAILY MAIL COMMENT: Be positive... to save our British identityDaily Mail -Business Standard
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Tory defection adds to Cameron's difficulties over EU renegotiation - Belfast...
30 Aug 2014 at 4:01am

Belfast Telegraph

Tory defection adds to Cameron's difficulties over EU renegotiation
Belfast Telegraph
David Cameron has conceded that his efforts to renegotiate the UK's relationship with Brussels would fail to appease hardline Eurosceptics within his own party who are determined to leave the European Union no matter what changes he could achieve.
Owen Paterson on UKIP
Carswell's UKIP ConversionNouse
EPHRAIM HARDCASTLE: Farage angered UKIP will not be invited to cenotaph ...Daily Mail
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Anti-TTIP protests scheduled across the UK - Voice of Russia - UK Edition
29 Aug 2014 at 1:17pm

Yahoo News UK

Anti-TTIP protests scheduled across the UK
Voice of Russia - UK Edition
Thousands of people across Britain will on Saturday protest against the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and US. More than 600 events have been scheduled, sparked by fears the proposed free trade ...
Survey finds three in 10 people in the East of England do not trust government to ...Herts and Essex Observer
Distrust over NHSLancashire Telegraph
More than a third of West Midlands people do not trust Government to protect NHSStaffordshire Newsletter
International Business Times UK
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Scottish independence: 'No' celebration cancelled - Scotsman
28 Aug 2014 at 4:30am


Scottish independence: 'No' celebration cancelled
THE Dumfries and Galloway Conservative and Unionist Association have cancelled a planned ?champagne brunch? for the morning after next month's independence referendum. The Association had publicised the event, due to take place at Dumfries' Aston ...
Scottish independence: Tories cancel No vote 'champagne celebration'BBC News
No vote celebration event cancelledHerald Scotland

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'Talking to the IRA our only hope of ending the bloodshed' - Belfast Telegraph
30 Aug 2014 at 12:05am

Belfast Telegraph

'Talking to the IRA our only hope of ending the bloodshed'
Belfast Telegraph
A priest who played a key role in highly secretive talks which led to the IRA ceasefire said it was vital to reach out to the group to put an end to its killing. Related Articles. Peace lines: We talk to key people about the ceasefire · Even amidst the bullets and ...
The killing has stopped but North's fragile peace remainsIrish Independent
Remembering the IRA ceasefire 20 years onBBC News

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Business News
Business News continually updated from thousands of sources around the net.

Stock market edges higher in midday trading
30 Aug 2014 at 1:06am

The latest reports on the U.S. economy were mixed. Consumer sentiment improved in August, while spending fell and income growth slowed in July.

Wolverton: With wireless competition heating up, time to thank the FCC
29 Aug 2014 at 9:27pm

It's time to give the regulators who oversee the wireless industry a big cheer -- and urge them to keep up the good work.

Exilis Proves to Be the Most Effective Treatment for Body Shaping and ...
29 Aug 2014 at 5:40pm

We have re-imagined our design in a bold new way. Before we roll it out for everyone, we are giving select readers an opportunity to try out the new design.

Powerful Chinese companies team up to fight Alibaba in e-commerce
29 Aug 2014 at 1:53pm

China's biggest property developer, Wanda Group, and Internet giants Baidu and Tencent unveiled a new e-commerce venture Friday in a challenge to industry leader Alibaba Group ahead of its U.S. stock offering.

Slow Comcast speeds were costing Netflix customers
29 Aug 2014 at 10:00am

That's according to a petition Netflix filed to the Federal Communications Commission this week in opposition to Comcast's proposed mega-merger with Time Warner Cable.

OSI Says Six Employees Arrested In Reported Shanghai Meat Safety Scandal
29 Aug 2014 at 10:00am

I'm a senior editor and the Shanghai bureau chief of Forbes magazine. Now in my 13th year at Forbes, I compile the Forbes China Rich List, Hong Kong Rich List and Taiwan Rich List.

Ukraine conflict weighs on markets; Retailers fall
29 Aug 2014 at 5:46am

Worsening tensions in Ukraine and some weak showings from retailers are sending U.S. stocks lower for the first time this week.

Feds Announce Application Process for Rural Broadband Experiments
29 Aug 2014 at 1:24am

On August 19th, the Federal Communications Commission released a public notice detailing the application process for entities interested in participating in the rural broadband experiments.

Time Warner Cable says outages largely resolved
28 Aug 2014 at 9:18pm

Time Warner Cable said Wednesday that service was largely restored after a problem during routine maintenance caused a nationwide outage of its Internet service for hours.

U.S. economy grew at better-than-expected rate in second quarter
28 Aug 2014 at 5:05pm

After a bleak start to the year, the U.S. economy grew at a brisk annual rate of 4.2 percent in the April-June quarter, the government said Thursday, slightly faster than it had first estimated.

Family Dollar Takeover: The Ball Is in Dollar General's Court
28 Aug 2014 at 12:58pm

Dollar General CEO Rick Dreiling did say he remains intent on a merger and the company is reviewing its options.

JPM Investigating Possible Cyber Attack
28 Aug 2014 at 8:33am

JPMorgan Chase & Co is investigating a possible cyber attack and working with law enforcement to determine the scope, company spokeswoman Trish Wexler said.

5Explosion at BP refinery, fire extinguished
28 Aug 2014 at 4:16am

An explosion at a BP refinery in Whiting, Indiana, has rattled nearby homes. No injuries have been reported and no evacuation has been ordered.

Watch Two Good Samaritans Rescue A Fat Prairie Dog
28 Aug 2014 at 1:10am

It feels good to do good--even when it involves an obese prairie dog having the most embarrassing day of its life.

Wonkblog: Why immigrants weathered the housing bust better than the U.S.-born...
27 Aug 2014 at 9:04pm

Despite the recent recession, new studies show that immigrants have managed to narrow the homeownership gap with native-born Americans.

BBC News - Business
BBC News - Business
The latest stories from the Business section of the BBC News web site.

Rogue landlords 'must face crackdown'
29 Aug 2014 at 9:01pm
Housing experts are calling for minimum standards in the private rental market to prevent landlords from exploiting vulnerable tenants.

Banks to reopen 2.5m PPI claims
29 Aug 2014 at 9:09am
Banks and card companies will reopen 2.5 million PPI mis-selling complaints amid claims of underpayment and rejection of compensation.

Russian rouble falls to new low
29 Aug 2014 at 9:59am
The Russian rouble falls to a record low against the dollar as investors fear further sanctions against the nation.

Tesco shares drop on profit warning
29 Aug 2014 at 9:50am
Shares in the struggling supermarket Tesco fall to an 11-year low after the group cut its profit forecast and dividend.

India's growth hits two year high
29 Aug 2014 at 10:52am
India's economy grew by 5.7% in the three months to June, its fastest pace in two-and-a-half years, according to an official estimate.

IMF voices 'confidence' in Lagarde
29 Aug 2014 at 4:08pm
The International Monetary Fund reaffirms its support for its leader Christine Lagarde despite her being investigated in a high-profile case in France.

Malaysia Airlines to cut 6,000 staff
29 Aug 2014 at 4:31am
Malaysia Airlines is to cut 6,000 staff as part of recovery plan after being hit by two air disasters this year.

Water bills plugged by regulator
29 Aug 2014 at 3:52am
Household water bills in England and Wales will go up less than the rising cost of living in the next five years, under proposals from regulator Ofwat.

House prices 'edge up in August'
29 Aug 2014 at 4:21am
House prices edged up by 0.8% in August, the Nationwide says, while the Land Registry reveals a big annual increase in London.

Brazil's economy enters recession
29 Aug 2014 at 7:54am
A contraction of 0.6% in Brazil's economy between April and June, and a revision of the first quarter, has pushed the country into recession, latest figures show.

Euro inflation nears five-year low
29 Aug 2014 at 4:53am
The eurozone inflation rate falls to 0.3% in August, near a five-year low, adding to fears of a deflationary spiral in the region.

Official figures highlight bonus gap
29 Aug 2014 at 6:04am
Official figures show a widening divide between public and private sector bonus payments.

Japan's economy signals weakness
28 Aug 2014 at 10:11pm
Japan's economy shows signs of stagnation and weakness as households spent less and factory output stays flat in July.

Virgin Australia trebles losses
28 Aug 2014 at 7:41pm
Virgin Australia posts an after-tax loss of A$355.6m ($332.6m; £200.5m) for the full year ending in June, triple the firm's previous year's losses for the period.

Google trials drone deliveries
28 Aug 2014 at 4:00pm
Google reveals it has built and tested its own drones as part of a plan to make automated deliveries to remote homes as well as disaster-hit zones.
Financial services company news -
Financial services company news -

Mortgage rules ?deter first-time buyers?
29 Aug 2014 at 5:06pm
Almost two million people cannot afford their first home, says mortgage insurer, estimating that first-time buyers numbers in 2014 will fall 41 per cent short
Lending to small groups must be simpler
29 Aug 2014 at 1:04pm
S&P announces plans for a cheaper ?ratings lite? product that they say could help make it easier for European SMEs to sell debt
FCA orders banks to reopen 2.5m PPI claims
29 Aug 2014 at 12:51pm
FCA?s order to investigate old mis-selling cases could be a fresh blow to smaller lenders, who may not have made sufficient provisions
RBS mortgage fine ?might not be last?
29 Aug 2014 at 12:34pm
Brokers say watchdog is probably looking at other banks? conduct after penalising state-owned lender for failures in its mortgage advice process
Bank bonuses soar despite pressure
29 Aug 2014 at 5:31am
Office for National Statistics says average bonus per employee in finance and insurance was £13,300 in the year to April, up £700 or 5.5%
Vanguard cuts fees across fund ranges
29 Aug 2014 at 4:41am
US group reduces ongoing charges on some funds to compete with other asset managers and lower the overall cost of investing
Coutts earmarks £110m for advice redress
29 Aug 2014 at 3:29am
Bank scrutinising 60 years of investments sold to its clients in the wake of Financial Conduct Authority inquiry into wealth management industry
Apple eyes pay-by-touch for next iPhone
28 Aug 2014 at 11:15pm
Apple working with chipmaker NXP to add secure short-range wireless technology into next iPhone in latest bid for the smartphone to replace the wallet
Pipeline of Europe?s IPOs continues to flow
28 Aug 2014 at 12:12pm
This year, 176 European IPOs have raised $55.5bn and two dozen more groups are expected to float despite concerns over pricing
Housing and recovery boost law firms
28 Aug 2014 at 12:09pm
A buoyant housing market and economic recovery are boosting growth in the legal industry, where earnings are set to hit pre-financial crisis levels
New framework for sovereign defaults
28 Aug 2014 at 11:52am
More than 400 of the world?s largest banks, investors and debt issuers have agreed a plan for dealing with financially stricken countries
Lending Club: neither a borrower nor a lender
28 Aug 2014 at 11:34am
IPO filing sheds light into how a quirky idea with great potential can turn problematic
Deutsche Bank fined over reporting errors
28 Aug 2014 at 11:15am
UK financial watchdog imposes £4.7m penalty on German lender after software glitch means 29m transactions were incorrectly reported
South Africa to issue maiden sukuk
28 Aug 2014 at 10:17am
South Africa said it had hired BNP Paribas, Standard Bank and KFH Investment, a unit of Kuwait Finance House, to handle meetings with investors.
Regulatory revenge risks scaring investors
28 Aug 2014 at 9:57am
As a central banker notes that the uncertainty is seen shifting to the legal risk, questions arise about the investability of banks
Business News - Markets reports and financial news from Sky
Business News - Markets reports and financial news from Sky
Sky business news provides up to the minute reports on markets, share prices and the world economy, alongside expert business commentary.

PPI Scandal: Lenders To Re-Open 2.5m Claims
29 Aug 2014 at 6:24am
The regulator intervenes after investigating a noticeable drop in the number of complaints being upheld.

Lib Dems Promise Six Weeks' Paternity Leave
29 Aug 2014 at 11:23pm
The party wants to extend the total parental leave to 58 weeks by allowing fathers to take six weeks off work.

Tesco Shares Slump As Trading Woes Deepen
29 Aug 2014 at 5:35am
The supermarket chain confirms the extent of its struggles as it battles to restore its brand amid an industry price war.

Malaysia Airlines Shake-Up After Planes Lost
29 Aug 2014 at 6:53am
The company cuts 30% of its workforce amid a big restructuring as passenger numbers dip following two mid-air tragedies.

The Week's Big Business Stories
29 Aug 2014 at 10:21am
Missed out on the week's big business stories? Naomi Kerbel rounds up what's been making news, including Burger King's big bite.

Water Bills Set To Fall Over Next Five Years
29 Aug 2014 at 2:47am
Ofwat shapes the cost to households for the next five years and confirms it wants £43bn of network improvements at the same time.

Iceland Volcano: Airlines On Ash Cloud Alert
29 Aug 2014 at 7:01am
Airlines are now on orange alert because of a new eruption, and further volcanic activity is possible throughout the region.

Firm's $1.3m Bill After Suing Google Customers
29 Aug 2014 at 2:26am
A court rules that Beneficial Innovations has to cover Google's $1.3m legal fees after it lost a jury case earlier this year.

Annual House Price Growth Hits 11% Says Report
29 Aug 2014 at 5:44am
The latest snapshot on prices suggests there is little to keep a lid on growth as the pace speeds up again.

RBS Enlists Help To Find Hampton Successor
29 Aug 2014 at 2:09am
The state-backed bank has hired a top search firm to find Sir Philip Hampton's successor, Sky News learns.
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Loonie and Aussie Share Downward Bond
by Adam Kritzer
30 Jun 2011 at 9:15am

In yesterday’s post (Tide is Turning for the Aussie), I explained how a prevailing sense of uncertainty in the markets has manifested itself in the form of a declining Australian Dollar. With today’s post, I’d like to carry that argument forward to the Canadian Dollar.

As it turns out, the forex markets are currently treating the Loonie and the Aussie as inseparable. According to, the AUD/USD and CAD/USD are trading with a 92.5% correlation, the second highest in forex (behind only the CHFUSD and AUDUSD). The fact that the two have been numerically correlated (see chart below) for the better part of 2011 can also be discerned with a cursory glance at the charts above.

Why is this the case? As it turns out, there are a handful of reasons. First of all, both have earned the dubious characterization of “commodity currency,” which basically means that a rise in commodity prices is matched by a proportionate appreciation in the Aussie and Loonie, relative to the US dollar. You can see from the chart above that the year-long commodities boom and sudden drop corresponded with similar movement in commodity currencies. Likewise, yesterday’s rally coincided with the biggest one-day rise in the Canadian Dollar in the year-to-date.

Beyond this, both currencies are seen as attractive proxies for risk. Even though the chaos in the eurozone has very little actual connection to the Loonie and Aussie (which are fiscally sound, geographically distinct, and economically insulated from the crisis), the two currencies have recently taken their cues from political developments in Greece, of all things. Given the heightened sensitivity to risk that has arisen both from the sovereign debt crisis and global economic slowdown, it’s no surprise that investors have responded cautiously by unwinding bets on the Canadian dollar.

Finally, the Bank of Canada is in a very similar position to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Both central banks embarked on a cycle of monetary tightening in 2010, only to suspend rate hikes in 2011, due to uncertainty over near-term growth prospects. While GDP growth has indeed moderated in both countries, price inflation has not. In fact, the most recent reading of Canadian CPI was 3.7%, which is well above the BOC’s comfort zone. Further complicating the picture is the fact that the Loonie is near a record high, and the BOC remains wary of further stoking the fires of appreciation by making it more attractive to carry traders.

In the near-term, then, the prospects for further appreciation are not good. The currency’s rise was so solid in 2009-2010 that it now seems the forex markets may have gotten ahead of themselves. A pullback towards parity – and beyond – seems like the only realistic possibility. If/when the global economy stabilizes, central banks resume heightening, and risk appetite increases, you can be sure that the Loonie (and the Aussie) will pick up where they left off.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Tide is Turning for the Aussie due to lower commodity prices, low interest ra...
by Adam Kritzer
29 Jun 2011 at 10:40am

“Australia is about to enter a boom that should last decades…The Australian dollar is unlikely to go back to where it was, and manufacturing will shrink in importance to the economy, perhaps even faster than it has been.” This, according to Martin Parkinson, Treasury Minister of Australia. While 30 years from now, Mr. Parkinson’s prognosis might probe to be accurate, I’m not so sure it applies to the period 3 months from now. Here’s why:

First of all, the putative economic boom that is taking place in Australia is being driven entirely by high commodity prices and surging production and exports. Since peaking at the end of April, commodity prices have fallen mightily. You can see from the chart above that there continues to exist a tight correlation between the AUD/USD and commodities prices. As commodities prices have fallen over the last two months, so has the Australian Dollar.

In addition, while demand will probably remain strong over the long-term, it may very well slacken over the short-term, due to declining economic growth across the industrialized world.  Consider also that Australia’s largest market for commodity exports – China – may have difficulty sustaining a GDP growth rate of 10%, and at the very least, new fixed-asset investment (which necessitates demand for raw materials) will temporarily peak in the immediate future.

Finally, the mining sector directly accounts for only 8% of Australia’s economy, which means that only to a limited extent to high commodities prices contribute to the bottom line of Australian GDP. This notion is reinforced by the 1.2% economic contraction in the second quarter – the biggest decline in 20 years – and the fact that GDP is basically flat over the last three quarters. Many non-mining economic indicators are sagging, and the number of corporate bankruptcies is 10% higher than in 2010. In the end, then, the ebb and flow of Australia’s fortune depends less on commodities, and more on other sectors.

Mr. Parkinson’s optimistic forecasts might also be undermined in the short-term by a looser-than-expected monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia last hiked its benchmark interest rate in November 2010, and may not hike again for a few more months due to moderating economic growth and proportionally moderate inflation. Given that an attractive interest rate differential may be driving some of the speculative activity that has girded the Aussie’s rise, a decline in this differential could likewise propel it downward.

That’s because anecdotal reports suggest that the Australian Dollar remains a popular long currency for carry traders, funded by shorting the US Dollar, and to a lesser extent, Japanese Yen. Given that many of these carry trades are heavily leveraged, it wouldn’t take much to trigger a short squeeze and a rapid decline in the AUD/USD. For evidence of this phenomenon, one has to look no further back than May 2010, when the Aussie fell 10-15% in only three weeks.

Ultimately, as one commentator recently pointed out, the Aussie’s 70% rise since 2008 might better be seen as US Dollar weakness (which also catalyzed the rise in commodity prices). The apparent stabilizing of the dollar, then, might let some air out of the currency down under.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Emerging Market Currencies Brace for Correction Due to Market Uncertainty and...
by Adam Kritzer
28 Jun 2011 at 2:42am

“It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair,” begins Charles Dickens’ The Tale of Two Cities. In 2011, the winter of despair was followed by the spring of uncertainty. Due to the earthquake/tsunami in Japan, the continued tribulations of Greece, rising commodity prices, and growing concern over the global economic recovery, volatility in the forex markets has risen, and investors are unclear as to how to proceed. For now at least, they are responding by dumping emerging market currencies.

As you can see from the chart above (which shows a cross-section of emerging market forex), most currencies peaked in the beginning of May and have since sold-off significantly. If not for the rally that started off the year, all emerging market currencies would probably be down for the year-to-date, and in fact many of them are anyway. Still, the returns for even the top performers are much less spectacular than in 2009 and 2010. Similarly, the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index is down 3.5% in the YTD, and the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI+) has risen 4.5% (which is reflects declining growth forecasts as much as perceptions of increasing creditworthiness).

There are a couple of factors that are driving this ebbing of sentiment. First of all, risk appetite is waning. Over the last couple months, every flareup in the eurozone debt crisis coincided with a sell-off in emerging markets. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Central and eastern European currencies that are seen as being most vulnerable to financial turmoil in the euro zone have underperformed.” Economies further afield, such as Turkey and Russia, have also experienced weakness in their respective currencies. Some analysts believe that because emerging economies are generally more fiscally sound than their fundamental counterparts, that they are inherently less risky. Unfortunately, while this proposition makes theoretical sense, you can be assured that a default by a member of the eurozone will trigger a mass exodus into safe havens – NOT into emerging markets.

While emerging market Asia and South America is somewhat insulated from eurozone fiscal problems. On the other hand, they remain vulnerable to an economic slowdown in China and to rising inflation. Emerging market central banks have avoided making significant interest rate hikes (hence, rising bond prices) – for fear of inviting further capital inflow and stoking currency appreciation – and the result has been rising price inflation. You can see from the chart above that the darkest areas (symbolizing higher inflation) are all located in emerging economic regions. While high inflation is not inherently problematic, it is not difficult to conceive of a downward spiral into hyperinflation. Again, a sudden bout of monetary instability would send investors rushing to the exits.

While most analysts (myself included) remain bullish on emerging markets over the long-term, many are laying off in the short-term. “RBC emerging market strategist Nick Chamie says his team has recommended ‘defensive posturing’ to clients since May 5 and isn’t recommending new bullish emerging currency bets right now….HSBC said Thursday that it isn’t recommending outright short positions on emerging market currencies to clients but suggested a more ‘cautious’ and selective approach in making currency bets.” This phenomenon will be exacerbated by the fact that market activity typically slows down in the summer chart above courtesy of Forex Magnates) as traders go on vacation. With less liquidity and an inability to constantly monitor one’s portfolio, traders will be loathe to take on risky positions.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend NO QE3: What are the Implications for the Dollar?
by Adam Kritzer
25 Jun 2011 at 7:28am

The verdict is nearly in; there will be no QE3. The second round of quantitative easing (?QE2?) will expire at the end of this month, and while it will not be unwound for quite some time, the Fed has indicated that it will not be followed by yet another round. The question on the minds of forex traders, of course, is what does this mean for the Dollar?

In his most recent press conference, Ben Bernanke, himself, indicated that QE3 was unlikely. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News, the majority of FX analysts (65%) believe him. Simply, the circumstances don?t support further easing. To be sure, the unemployment rate remains high, and the economy is teetering on the verge of double-dip recession. However, the last two rounds did little to address either of these problems, and companies have hoarded cash rather than investing in new plant and workers.

Interest rates are still hovering around record lows, and there isn?t anything to be gained from trying to lower them further. Besides, given that inflation is now above 3% ? due to an explosion in good and energy prices ? QE3 would simply be too risky. Economist Ken Goldstein summarized the situation as follows: “We will come to the end of QE2 and largely we mark about how little happened when it ended and that?s also an argument about why there may not be persuasive argument to do a QE3.”

On the other hand, there are some analysts who think that QE3 is inevitable (29%). PIMCO?s Bill Gross, manager of the world?s biggest bond fund, recently indicated that, ?Next Jackson Hole in August will likely hint at QE3/interest rate caps.? (Personally, I think that he?s probably just bitter that his forecast of a decline in Treasury Bond prices hasn?t materialized). One columnist wrote that the Fed?s arm will be twisted by the ongoing collapse of the housing market, while others have argued that the recent decline in the S&P 500 will spur the Fed into action. Most of us, however, believe that the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach before ultimately conceding that more easing is necessary.

For now at least, then, the prevailing assumption is that there will not be a QE3. As for how forex markets have digested this news, they have taken it in stride. The Dollar is now holding its value, and as I wrote in a previous post, it may even have bottomed out. Of course, it doesn?t hurt that the Euro is being punished by another flare-up in the sovereign debt crisis and investors are getting nervous about bubbles in emerging market currencies, all of which provide support for the dollar.

The fact that QE2 will soon end without having triggered financial apocalypse or hyperinflation ? as some cassandras initially predicted ? is something that is worth nothing. Of course, the proceeds of QE1 and QE2 will be recycled indefinitely into the markets, and forex investors can?t completely put quantitative easing behind them. Still, that there won’t be any more additional cash injected into commodities markets and emerging economy asset markets means that one of the main sources of downward pressure on the dollar has been eliminated.

Ironically, it is possible that the unveiling of QE3 could actually cause the dollar to rally. The reason is that there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the markets, which provides the dollar with some safe haven demand. If the Fed were to concede that all is not well on the economic front and respond by more money printing, it could drive some safe haven flows into the US, even to the extent that it would overwhelm outflows driven by concerns over inflation.

Personally, I think the dollar will continue to hold its value, and perhaps even appreciate slightly in the near-term, as forex markets dither over the way forward. SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Swiss Franc is the Only Safe Haven Currency. The Franc is Starting to Distanc...
by Adam Kritzer
23 Jun 2011 at 10:11am

According to conventional market wisdom, there are three safe haven currencies: the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and US Dollar. It is to these currencies that investors flock whenever there is a crisis, or merely an outbreak of uncertainty, and for much of the period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the three were closely correlated. As you can see from the chart below, however, one of these currencies has begun to distinguish itself from the other two, leading some to argue that there is now only one true safe haven currency: the Swiss Franc.

What’s not to like about the Franc? It boasts a strong economy, low inflation, and low unemployment. Unlike the US and Japan, Switzerland is not plagued by a high national debt and perennial budget deficits. Its monetary policy has been extremely conservative: no quantitative easing, asset-purchases, or any other money printing programs with euphemistic names.

Ironically, the only thing that makes investors nervous about the franc is that it has already risen so much. Remember when it reached the milestone of parity against the dollar in 2010? Since then, it has appreciated by an additional 20%, and seems to breach a new record on an almost weekly basis. The same goes for the CHF/EUR and CHF/JPY. The President of Switzerland’s export association is expecting further gains: “Parity is a realistic scenario. Given the indebtedness of the eurozone and the strong attraction of the franc, the euro is likely to continue to lose value.”

Given that Swiss exports have surged in spite of (or even because of) the rising Franc, however, he has very little to worry about at the moment. As you can see fromt he graphic below (courtesy of the Financial Times), the balance of trade continues to expand, and has exploded in a handful of key sectors. To be sure, economists expect that this situation will eventually correct itself and are already moving to revise downward 2011 and 2012 GDP growth estimates. Then again, they made the same erroneous predictions in 2010.

The main variable in the Swiss Franc is the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Having booked a loss of CHF 20 Billion from failed intervention in 2010, the SNB is not in a position to make the same mistake again. In fact, SNB President Philipp Hildebrand has not even stooped to verbal intervention this time around, undoubtedly cognizant of the fact that he has very little credibility in forex markets.

At the same time, the SNB is not in any hurry to raise interest rates, lest it stoke further speculative interest in the Franc. Its June meeting came and went without any indication of when it might tighten. Interest rate futures currently reflect an expectation that the first rate hike won’t come until March 2012. Thus, the downside of holding the Franc is that it will continue to pay a negative real interest rate. The only upside, then, is the possibility of further appreciation. Fortunately, the SNB is unlikely to stop the Franc from rising, since it serves the same monetary end as higher interest rates. In other words, a more valuable Franc serves as a direct check on inflation because it lowers the cost of commodity imports and should (eventually) soften demand for Swiss exports.

It is possible that the Swiss Franc will suffer a correction at some point, if only because it rose by such a large margin in such a short period of time. On the other hand, given that its economy has proved its ability to withstand the Franc’s appreciation, it’s no wonder that investors continue to bet on its rise.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Is it Possible to Trade Forex Part-time?
by Adam Kritzer
22 Jun 2011 at 10:17am

This week, I came across an article in the San Francisco Gate (which, incidentally, has really ramped up its forex coverage over the last year) that addressed this very topic. Given that part-time forex traders probably outnumber those that practice the craft full-time, such an article was long overdue.

In sum, the author advises part-time traders to concentrate their trading during the busiest times of the day, or failing that, to simply trade the most active currency pairs during the period of the day that one happens to have time to trade. For example, if you wish to trade the USD/EUR but only have a limited amount of time to do so, you are advised to trade the opening of the New York and/or London sessions, at 8AM EST and 3AM EST, respectively. Alternatively, if you only have time to trade from midnight to 2am, for example, you are advised to trade currency pairs in which the quote currency is the Yen, because during that time the Tokyo session is “in full swing.”

Alas, this kind of strategy is based on a very dubious assumption, which is that you should aim to trade the currency pairs which are both the most liquid and most volatile (ignore the contradiction here), because this will yield the most profits. In other words, it’s easy to capture profits when trading pairs that tend to bounce around a lot and which are cheap and easy to buy and sell. Right?

If you read the Forex Blog with any regularity and are ware that my bend is towards fundamental analysis, it’s probably already obvious to you that I don’t think this is necessarily the case. Consider that forex is a zero-sum game. In other words, on average, 50% of traders win and 50% lose. [When you account for trading costs (i.e. spreads), its probably closer to 30% win and 70% lose, but let's ignore this for the sake of argument]. Thus, the way I see it, a trader that enters the market during the busiest times has the same chance of winning (~50%) as a different trader that enters the market during the least busy time of day. Either way you cut it, someone has to win and someone has to lose, and no amount of liquidity or volatility can rectify this situation.

Thus, my advice for part-time traders is to forget trading altogether. If you don’t have the time to constantly monitor the market, pore over charts, and develop technical strategy, the odds of winning are pretty low. On the other hand, why not shift your focus from trading to investing? Trading is difficult under the best of circumstances and even more difficult when you don’t have enough time to make a real commitment.

The only way around this is to shift your time horizon from minutes to days – or even weeks. This way, it won’t matter when you have time to trade. Spreads might be marginally higher (as evidenced in the spikes in he chart above, which shows how spreads fluctuate over time) for the USD/EUR at midnight than at 8am, but if you’re planning on holding the pair for more than 10 seconds (and your target profit is greater than 15 pips), this is basically irrelevant.

This way, you also don’t have to worry about carefully planning your entry and exit into positions. Entering a swing trade with a targeted profit of 500pips is probably just as good at 4am as it is at 7am, all else being equal. While this doesn’t necessarily increase the odds of success (above 50%), at least it gives you a great deal more flexibility in being a part-time trader.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Japanese Yen In "No Man's Land." When will the BOJ Intervene to stop its rise?
by Adam Kritzer
20 Jun 2011 at 8:52am

This, according to a hedge fund manager that has decided to cancel all of his fund’s bearish bets on the Japanese Yen. The reason: the yen is rising, and it’s unclear when – or even if – the government will intervene to push it back down. Even though the yen’s strength is fundamentally illogical, it seems that investors are growing increasingly wary of betting against it.

As I pointed out in my previous post on the Yen (“Japanese Yen Strength is Illogical, but Does it Matter?“), the yen has actually fallen over the last twelve months, on a correlation weighted basis (though to be fair, it has staged a pretty impressive comeback since the beginning of April). Unfortunately, investors mainly care about how it is performing against a handful of key currencies, namely the US Dollar. Simply, the yen continues to rise against the dollar, and it is unclear when it will stop.

Japanese government analysis has indeed confirmed that “speculators” are behind the strong yen, as the alleged wide-scale repatriation of yen by Japanese insurance companies has yet to materialize. Of course, there isn’t really much doubt: Japan’s economy is contracting, due to decrease in output spurred by the tsunami. In May, it recorded its second largest monthly trade deficit ever.

Meanwhile, interest rates and bond yields are pathetically low, and the Bank of Japan is being urged to expand its asset buying program, which would theoretically result in a devaluation of the yen. As  a result, retail Japanese forex traders (nicknamed “Mrs. Watanabes“) have resumed shorting the Yen as part of a carry trade strategy.

Alas, speculators either don’t share their pessimism or are running out of patience. While everyone continues to assume that the BOJ will intervene if the Yen rises to 80 against the dollar, no one can be sure whether the line in the sand might not be 78 or even 75. At this point, intervention seems to hinge more on politics than on economics, which means predicting it is beyond the scope of this post. In other words, “There is too much uncertainty and volatility in markets right now to make that yen trade appealing.” And sure enough, the most recent Commitments of Traders data shows that speculators have been re-building their yen long positions over the last month.

In the end, the speculators are probably right. The Bank of Japan has intervened twice over the last twelve months, and the impact has always been short-lived. Besides, given that many speculators still remain committed to shorting the yen, it remains extraordinarily vulnerable to the kind of short squeeze that sent it soaring 5% in a single session en route to the record high it touched in March.

I’m personally still bearish on the yen, but I also think it’s too risky to short it against the dollar, which seems to be declining for its own reasons. As you can see from the chart below, the yen has fallen against virtually every other major currency. Yen shorters, then, might be wise to avoid the dollar altogether and focus instead on any number of other currencies. SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Forex Volatility Continues Rising. What are the Implications for the Euro?
by Adam Kritzer
17 Jun 2011 at 9:38am

This week witnessed another flareup in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. As a result, volatility in the EUR/USD pair surged, by some measures to a record high. Even though the Euro rallied yesterday and today, this suggests that investors remain nervous, and that going forward, the euro could embark on a steep decline.

There are a couple of forex volatility indexes. The JP Morgan G7 Volatility Index is based on the implied volatility in 3-month currency options and is one of the broadest measures of forex volatility. As you can see from the chart above, the index is closing in on year-to-date high (excluding the spike in March caused by the Japanese tsunami), and is generally entrenched in an upward trend. Barring day-to-day spikes, however, it will take months to confirm the direction of this trend.

For specific volatility measurements, there is no better source of data than (whose founder, Arnaud Jeulin, I interviewed only last month). Here, you can find data on more than 30 currency pairs, charted across multiple time periods. You can see for the EUR/USD pair in particular that volatility is now at the highest point in 2011 and is closing in on a two-year high.

Meanwhile, the so-called risk-reversal rate for Euro currency options touched 3.1, which is greater than the peak of the credit crisis. This indicator represents a proxy for investor concerns that the Euro will collapse suddenly, and its high level suggests that this is indeed a growing concern. In addition, implied volatility in options contracts has jumped dramatically over the last week, which confirms that investors expect the euro to move dramatically over the next month.

What does all of this mean? In a nutshell, it shows that panic is rising in the forex markets. Last month, I used this notion as a basis for arguing that the dollar safe-haven trade will make a come-back. This would still seem to be the case, and should also benefit the Swiss Franc, which is nearing an all-time high against the euro. Naturally, it also implies that forex investors remain extremely concerned about a continued decline in the euro, and are rushing to hedge their exposure and/or close out long positions altogether. suggests that this could make the EUR/USD an interesting pair to trade, since large swings in either direction will necessarily create opportunities for traders. While I have no opinion on such indiscriminate trading [I prefer to make directional bets based on fundamentals], I must nonetheless acknowledge the logic of such a strategy. SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend Euro Nears Breaking Point
by Adam Kritzer
16 Jun 2011 at 8:33am

It’s deja vu all over again in the forex markets as another twist in the sovereign debt crisis has sent the euro tumbling by the greatest margin in nearly a year. It was only last month that I posted “The Euro (Still) has a Greek Problem,” and yet, forex markets are once again reacting to the possibility of a Greek default as thought it were a new development. At the very least, investors finally seem to be acknowledging the inevitable.

There have been several factors at work in this latest episode. On Monday, S&P downgraded its credit rating for Greece to CCC, following on a similar move by Moody’s. That means that Greece’s sovereign credit rating is now the lowest in the world, behind such eminent economies as Grenada and Ecuador. While the move was hardly noteworthy in itself, it represents one more straw on the camel’s back.

Greece’s government is increasingly unstable, and Prime Minister George Papandreou has become so desperate that he has suggested forming an alliance with Greece’s most powerful opposition party. Meanwhile, violent riots outside Greek Parliament have reportedly become a daily occurrence, as the Greek populace has proven unwilling to accept wage cuts and tax increases.

As if that weren’t enough, there is tremendous uncertainty surrounding the next stage of the Greek bailout. No one can agree on what amount to give and what should be stipulated in return. Some parties think that private investors should be involved in the bailout by taking a “haircut” on the bonds that they own. Some members of the eurozone are balking about contributing any funds at all, wary of justifying it to their own citizens and that it is merely forestalling the inevitable.

I think the NYTimes offered the best summary: “Funding fatigue is growing in the north European creditor countries, especially Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria, just as austerity fatigue is mounting in Greece.” When you consider that Greek interest rates and credit default swap spreads have surged to record highs, it seems that default is really inevitable. If the IMF and European Union are so determined, they can push off default until 2013. Still, default now or default then is still default.

At this point, then, the only real question is what happens when Greece defaults. Will it be forced to leave the Eurozone? Will that push the rest of the Eurozone fringe closer towards default? Will the Euro collapse and cease to exist as a currency? What will happen then?

Unfortunately, I think the answer to all of these questions is yes. At the very least, Greece will be forced out of the eurozone. Bondholders will push interest rates in Ireland, Spain, and Portugal up to double-digit levels, trapping them in the same cycle in which Greece is currently ensnared. Given the exposure of French and German banks to the sovereign debt of financially troubled eurozone members, they will also require state bailouts, and so on.

In a recent op-ed published in The Financial Times, celebrity economies Nouriel Roubini argued that the only way to avoid a complete eurozone meltdown is if the euro depreciates rapidly “to restore competitiveness to the periphery” or if the European Union is able to rapidly achieve complete fiscal and economic union. Roubini argues that the former is difficult because of the ECB’s hawkishness, while the latter is precluded by political hurdles that remain too formidable to overcome.

As Greece inches ever closer to default, the markets will increasingly become gripped by utter uncertainty over the questions that I posed above. Central Banks will stop accumulating euro-denominated assets, and investment funds will similarly shun Europe. (In fact, there is already evidence that this is happening). While European interest rates are attractive relative to the rest of the G4, they are hardly enough to compensate investors for this uncertainty. And when the markets come to terms with this, the euro might finally reach its breaking point.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend S&P 500 Decouples from Euro?
by Adam Kritzer
14 Jun 2011 at 9:58am

While I have written quite about forex correlations in recent posts, the focus has primarily been on correlations that exist between currencies. In this post, I would like to address a correlation that exists between currencies and other forex markets- specifically the relationship between the Euro and US stocks.

If you look at the chart above, you can see that an unmistakable correlation exists between the S&P500 and the EUR/USD that stretches back at least six months. Generally speaking, when the EURUSD has risen, so has the S&P 500, and vice versa. In fact, this correlation is so airtight that one analyst recently discovered that the two financial vehicles often reach intra-day highs and lows within minutes of one another!

Why is this the case? In a nutshell, it is because the Euro – especially relative to the dollar – is a proxy for risk appetite. The same is necessarily true for US stocks. When investors are confident in the strength of the global economic recovery and the possibility of crisis is distant, the euro will rise. This has nothing to do with fundamentals in Europe, which are probably at least as bad as they are in the US. Of course, it may be connected with dollar weakness, since it is arguably the case that quantitative easing has both depressed the dollar and buoyed US stocks.

As I intimated in the title of this post, however, the S&P recently decoupled from the euro. Since the beginning of June, US equities have declined sharply, to the extent that they have given back most of their gains in the year-to-date. The EUR/USD, meanwhile, continued rising all the way until last week. While this has happened on a couple previous occasions, this was perhaps the sharpest break between the two.

I’m personally at a loss to explain why this happened. It has been conjectured that the driving force behind the correlation is algorithmic trading, and that hence, it must also represent the source of the break. In other words, high-frequency traders – which account for an ever-increasing proportion of forex volume – tweaked their trading algorithms so as not to buy the S&P 500 when the EURUSD rises, and vice versa.

It’s probably also the case that S&P 500 was falling for endogenous reasons- specifically a decline in GDP growth and earnings expectations which need not necessarily reflect itself in a stronger euro. In fact, in a normal functioning market, you would expect an inverse correlation; strong US economic fundamentals should translate into both a strong dollar and rising stocks. Could it be that worsening fundamentals are manifesting themselves in the form of a weak dollar and weak stocks?

Alas, the correlation has re-established itself over the last week, which means this is largely a moot issue. At the very least, it’s still worth being aware of, both insofar as it remains intact and in the event that it breaks down again.

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