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Obama win cements need for strong dollar policy
Reuters, Wednesday November 5 2008

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - With Democratic Senator Barack Obama headed to the White House, the U.S. dollar looks poised to continue its four-month rally over the coming months, especially if the new administration embraces a strong currency policy to help attract much-needed capital inflows.

Under Obama, the United States will have to sell a raft of new debt to maintain funding for two wars, pay for a massive bailout package aimed at unlocking tight credit markets and fund a potential second stimulus plan.

Attracting investors to new U.S. debt will be a top priority, and a strong dollar will be crucial in luring fresh cash into the United States.

Greg Salvaggio, senior vice president for capital markets at Tempus Consulting in Washington, said Obama's win will probably "harken back to a very strong dollar policy," largely because of "all the borrowing Treasury is going to have to do" to finance two wars, a financial bailout plan, and possibly a large public works program to tackle rising unemployment.

Salvaggio said in such an environment, the "U.S. will need to attract capital."

While the Bush White House has often said it supports a strong dollar, it did little to prevent a steep decline in the greenback because a weaker currency was an important step in rebalancing a global economy plagued by a massive U.S. trade deficit and huge Chinese surplus.

A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper and it helped prop up the economy earlier this year. Yet it also sparked some uncomfortable discussions on whether the greenback was losing its primacy as the global currency of choice.

Salvaggio added that the presence in Obama's campaign of ex-Clinton economic hands such as former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, ex-Harvard University President Lawrence Summers, and ex-Federal Reserve chief Paul Volcker -- all strong dollar proponents -- also bodes well for the dollar's fortunes.
And if history is any guide, the dollar may be set to perform well anyway, as the currency tends to do marginally better under Democratic administrations than Republican ones.

The eight-year term of President Bill Clinton, the last Democrat to inhabit the White House, coincided with a 20.3 percent gain in the dollar against a basket of currencies, although the currency benefited from a drop in U.S. defense spending as the cold war ended.

CONFIDENCE IN U.S. ASSETS
Compare that with President George W. Bush's term, which saw a 35 percent plunge in the greenback from the time he took office in January 2001 to July 2008, the height of the global credit crisis. The dollar has since recovered 20 percent from July's trough, but was still down 20 percent during Bush's eight-year stint.
Analysts also said Obama's victory should further boost confidence in the U.S. economy and its assets, which should underpin the dollar even more.

The dollar is currently in the midst of a blistering rally, gaining 10 percent against a basket of currencies so far this year, amid a global deleveraging process that saw investors scrambling to buy the greenback to repay dollar-denominated loans. These dollar borrowings had funded higher-yielding and riskier portfolio bets by investors.

That trend is likely to persist as market participants looked to snap up more U.S. assets after the decisive election of a candidate that promised to bring sweeping changes to a country mired in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

"Obama's victory should mark an injection of confidence in the United States and therefore would be good for the performance of equity markets and portfolio flows into U.S. assets," said Marco Annunziata, global head of economics and foreign exchange research at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking in London.
"It also reinforces the leadership image of the U.S. and if you think of all the debate about the possibility of the dollar losing its status as a reserve currency, I think the success of Obama will likely put to rest doubts on the dollar."

Some analysts, however, warned this euphoria may not last long and the dollar could come under pressure in the longer term, especially if the U.S. budget deficit gets out of hand.

According to Standard Chartered, the U.S. fiscal 2008 deficit would reach $455 billion, or 3.2 percent of gross domestic product. The bank expects the 2009 budget deficit to surge much higher, penciling in a shortfall of around $1 trillion, or 7 percent of GDP.

"The large fiscal deficit adds to the structural negatives for the dollar as (it) will ultimately require more capital inflows from offshore which may be a challenge," said Standard Chartered in a research note. (Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson; Editing by Diane Craft)

Courtesy: Online Currency Exchange | guardian.co.uk | reuters

***************************

By Angela Monaghan
Last Updated: Oct 2008

Within hours of trading opening in London, sterling was down almost four cents against the greenback to $1.8036 - the biggest intraday decline in 15 years.

The news that the Government has taken ownership of the UK's biggest buy-to-let lender also left banking shares reeling, with HBOS down 8pc, Barclays and Lloyds TSB 7pc lower, and Royal Bank of Scotland more than 10pc lower.

Housebuilders failed to escape, as investors targeted companies with exposure to the UK consumer. Taylor Wimpey was off 11pc and Barratt Developments down 6pc. Overall, the FTSE 100 had fallen almost 3pc to below the 5,000 level by late morning and the FTSE 250 was off 3pc.

B&B's mortgage book will now join Northern Rock under government ownership in a move analysts reckon will saddle each UK taxpayer with Ł2,750 exposure to the market. City economists now expect the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates in November in an attempt to stave off a deep and prolonged recession in the UK.

Sentiment toward the pound darkened after the Bank of England published surprisingly poor mortgage lending figures. Net lending plunged to Ł143m in August, down from Ł2.9bn in July. This was the lowest level since the series began more than 15 years ago and was substantially below the Ł4.7bn monthly average for the previous six months.

"The mortgage market in effect ceased to exist in August," said Steve Barrow, currency strategist at Standard Bank.

Mortgage approvals fell to a new low of 32,000, compared with 33,000 in July, in a sign that Chancellor Alistair Darling's failed in his attempt to kick-start the housing market with a stamp duty holiday for transactions.

As the picture in the UK deteriorated, so too did the story in Europe after it emerged yesterday that stricken Belgian bank Fortis was facing a state takeover after concerns about its liquidity wiped out almost a quarter of its value last week.

The euro fell against the dollar to $1.4362 this morning, from $1.4614.

"We've had bad news in both the UK and European banking sectors. The idea that this is primarily a US problem is beginning to dissipate," said Paul Robinson, currency strategist at Barclays.

The picture in the UK and Europe contrasted with that in the US, where Congress's agreement to a draft bill on a Ł380bn bailout package to salvage the US banking and financial system was welcomed with relief by the market and contributed to the strengthening of the dollar.
Courtesy:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/
financialcrisis/3101817/
Financial-crisis-pound-falls-most-in-15-years-in-wake-of-BandB-nationalisation.html

Banking crisis: Interbank lending rates continue to rise
Despite attempts by the world's central banks to add liquidity to the money markets, banks are still wary about lending to one another

By Ashley Seager: guardian.co.uk,
Monday September 29 2008 12:52 BST

Interbank lending markets across Europe suffered further turmoil today as the weekend collapse of Bradford & Bingley and Fortis meant other banks remained reluctant to lend to each other, in spite of an injection of Ł40bn of liquidity by the Bank of England and similar activities by other central banks.

The daily fixing of London interbank offered rate (Libor) by the British Bankers' Association showed three-month sterling rates rose to 6.26% from 6.25% on Friday and even further above the Bank's official rate of 5%.

The three-month dollar Libor fixing was up at 3.88% compared to 3.76% on Friday while three-month euro funds were priced at 5.22% from 5.14% at the end of last week.

The separate Euribor fixing for euros rose to a record of 5.24%, a rise of 10 basis points, which was the biggest jump since June.

"The root of the banking story is in the money markets, which are still in awful shape," said Padhraic Garvey, a strategist at ING Bank. "Banks are dealing with central banks for liquidity purposes but are very careful about dealing with one another in this environment, which effectively means the interbank wholesale-money market is not working."

The Bank of England's auction of Ł40bn of three-month money was oversubscribed by 1.3 times, such was the demand for funds.

The increases in interbank rates show central-bank attempts to breathe life back into money markets have failed, even after the US Congress approved a $700bn (Ł388.9bn) plan to buy up toxic assets from bank balance sheets.

The European central bank said today it will make additional funds available to banks through the end of the year in "special" auctions. The central banks of Japan and Australia added more than $20bn to money markets.

The Bank of England also said today it would offer $10bn in an overnight money market operation.

The euro and pound both fell against the dollar in early dealings as the latest focus on bank failures moved to the UK and eurozone rather than the US. Sterling dropped to just over $1.80 while the euro weakened to $1.433.

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Secondly we don't accept an uncompetitive fixed rate from any bank or other financial institution. We negotiate directly on the currency trading floors. We deal with 10 main currencies, but can transfer funds into 150 other currencies. Some of these less common currencies are harder work than others; but we can discuss this should the need arise.

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Don't run the risk of fluctuations! We can by fixing a rate for your currency requirements today for a purchase in the future (up to 6 months).

Using an example... The Euro against the pound... 6 months ago was € 1.48/ Ł1.00; today it is € 1.32/ Ł1.00. On a Ł100,000 transfer the difference in those 6 months is Ł12,000

Case Study: Mr. and Mrs. Montague from Sheffield 17, were due to transfer Ł365,000 to buy a villas in Spain. Their completion had been planned for the end of the month, but they had notified us of their intentions. We are always scanning the currencies and notified Mr. and Mrs. Montague that the euro rate had reached € 1.47/ Ł1.00 and was expecting to go down in the forthcoming weeks. They agreed to secure the money at this rate. Three weeks later the rate had gone down to € 1.45/ Ł1.00 - not a big percentage drop but the Montague's saved Ł4,500 in securing the rate week's before.

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At Pounds-to-Euros.com we have established contacts around the world to make the transition of your money flow safely and securely. As specialists we focus exclusively on servicing your particular needs and desires and that is our only purpose. We don't carry our other banking facilities so our competence in this complex market is supreme.

Both my colleagues and I try to supply you with all the information you need to make good decisions about your money. We watch the currencies by the hour as they all strengthen and weaken during the trading day. Such knowledge is invaluable as advice to you when making decisions about the currency markets.

As in office focus is 80% to 20% - Private Property Purchases to Commercial Purchases, we only have two particular areas to concentrate on. We work hard to proactively understand new markets, up-coming hot spots, financial issues and the overall buying process for your benefit.

Each week, we transfer millions of pounds for hundreds of our clients. It's all done highly effectively and efficiently through tried and tested processes and procedures. We focus on providing the best currency exchange rate, getting the payment to the destination account as quickly as possible and giving an outstanding service.

We've been trading since 1991, are registered in the UK.

One final bit of advise... If you use our service or not... Plan your currency exchange at least a month (or even 3 to 6 months) in advance to get the best exchange rate. Don't leave it until the last minute.

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We make our money the same way the bank does - we buy currency at wholesale on the currency trade floor (in bulk); and transfer to the receiving bank in your requested account. Unlike banks that add 3-5% margin, we can usually stay below 1%. In the end, you save money, we get paid for our great service and the banks exploit one less person!

Don't forget this is what we offer...

We can offer... Superior Currency Exchange Rates...

We can offer... No Fees or Commission...

We can offer... No Telegraphic Transfer Costs...

(with the exception of 22 currencies in third world countries)

We can offer... incredible savings and reduce the risk of adverse currency fluctuations (see below)

Furthermore...

We can also offer... Arranging this transfer from the comfort of your own home...

We can also offer... Regular updates during the process of the transfer...

We can also offer... Receive confirmation that that the money has been exchanged and transferred

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Case Study
In November 2007 Simon from Gloucestershire wanted to invest in a property in Miami, mainly because the dollar was weak against the pound. He had Ł175,000 to invest which was going to buy him a substantial property. He'd been given a quotation from his bank at US $1.80 / Ł1. A broker in comparison could achieve US $1.84 to the Ł1; plus of course these brokers don't charge any incidental fees. Simon if he would have gone through his bank would have got $315,000; but because he chose a broker they were able to secure $322,000. This saved Simon $7,000 almost Ł3,400

Case Study
In August 2007 there was Jayne from Southampton, she was buying a property in Almeria, Spain. Her transfer was for a villa at Ł325,000; a superb 5 bedroom villa with sea views. Her bank had frightened her with the exchange rate, so she decided to look elsewhere; fortunately she came to a brokers website. She was offered an exchange rate of US €1.39 / Ł1; they were able to offer €1.41 / Ł1. This meant had she continued with the bank she would have realised €451,750 - however fortunately the broker service could manage €458,250; saving Jayne €6,500 (Ł4,600)

Case Study
In September 2007 Dominique wanted to buy an Apline ski home in Austria. The property was valued at Ł295,000. He hadn't gone to the bank as he had heard that the banks weren't always the best choice. A broker will be fully aware of what the banks charge at what rates they work with: Barclays on this day was working with an exchange rate of €1.35 / Ł1; the broker on the other hand could get €1.38 / Ł1. Using Barclays, Dominique would have received €398,250; whereas the broker actually secured him €407,100 which has a difference of €8,850 (Ł6,400).

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Buying Property Abroad and Moving Abroad - Top Financial Tips

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ADVERSE CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS

Don't run the risk of fluctuations! Currency Brokers, can, by fixing a rate for your currency requirements today for a purchase in the future (up to 6 months).

Currency Example... The Pound against the Euro... 16 months ago was €1.48/ Ł1.00; 6 months later it was €1.32/ Ł1.00. On a Ł100,000 transfer the difference in those 6 months is Ł12,000

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Pounds - Dollars - Euros

Currency - Pounds - Dollars - Euros - were all given a slight boost following a drop in oil prices on Wednesday 23rd. The dollar rose against the Yen, Euro and Swiss Franc.

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