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![]() Nation - Google News Google News BoE official calls time on free banking - Financial Times 24 May 2012 at 2:15am ![]() Telegraph.co.uk Financial Times By Hannah Kuchler Free banking is a ?dangerous myth? that could be fuelling product mis-selling, a top official at the Bank of England will warn on Thursday. Andrew Bailey, BoE executive director, will say the free accounts offered to British customers ... BoE Official: Banks Must Charge For AccountsSky News Free banking a dangerous myth, says Bank officialBBC News Call to end free bank accountsThe Press Association moneyfacts.co.uk -MyFinances.co.uk all 23 news articles » Murder inquiry after 25-year-old man stabbed by gang in street - stv.tv 24 May 2012 at 3:39am ![]() Selkirk Weekend Advertiser stv.tv Police have launched a murder inquiry after a man was stabbed on a Glasgow street. The 25-year-old was walking along Tormusk Road in the Castlemilk area of the city with another man at around 11.45pm on Wednesday. He was approached by a group of men ... Stabbing prompts murder inquiryThe Press Association Murder probe over street stabbingBBC News all 7 news articles » Carina Trimingham loses privacy case against Daily Mail - The Guardian 24 May 2012 at 4:00am The Guardian The Guardian Carina Trimingham has lost her high court claim for damages for alleged breach of privacy and harrassment against the Daily Mail. Mr Justice Tugendhat on Wednesday morning issued a written judgment finding against Trimingham, the partner of Chris Huhne ... Chris Huhne's lover loses privacy caseTelegraph.co.uk Huhne partner loses privacy caseBBC News Huhne partner loses damages claimWest Sussex County Times The Press Association all 7 news articles » Breaking news Detectives have charged a man over Agim Hoxha murder - Daily Echo 24 May 2012 at 3:20am ![]() Belfast Telegraph Daily Echo A MAN arrested in Italy by detectives hunting the killer of a Hampshire crane driver whose body was found in a burning car has been charged with murder. Arben Lleshi was flown back to Britain yesterday afternoon ? 12 days after being arrested in Rome ... Man charged in crane driver murderLytham Today all 149 news articles » Nick Clegg condemns 'easier sacking' plan proposed in Adrian Beecroft's repor... 22 May 2012 at 7:52am Daily Mail The Independent Nick Clegg has condemned proposals to make it easier for businesses to fire workers, saying he has never supported the scheme. There is no evidence that creating "industrial-scale insecurity" among workers will help secure new jobs, according to the ... 'No fault dismissal' plans look buried as Nick Clegg joins criticsThe Guardian Adrian Beecroft thinks Vince Cable is a socialist - I think Adrian Beecroft is ...Metro (blog) Adrian Beecroft: Nick Clegg's threats to go nuclear are hollowTelegraph.co.uk Daily Mail -BBC News -Financial Times all 576 news articles » Shafilea Ahmed's mother pushed daughter on sofa and ordered husband to 'finis... 24 May 2012 at 12:09am ![]() Telegraph.co.uk Telegraph.co.uk Shafilea Ahmed's younger sister wept yesterday as she recalled the moment their mother pushed the teenager onto a sofa and ordered her husband: ?Just finish it now?. By Nigel Bunyan With all four of her children in the room, Farzana Ahmed, 49, ... Shafilea Ahmed murder: Court told of alleged chilling words from motherLiverpool Echo Sister weeps as she tells jury of Shafilea killingYorkshire Post Shafilea Ahmed: Parents 'forced bag into mouth'BBC News ITV News -The Guardian -Daily Mail all 837 news articles » Into the darkness - commuters tell of nightmare on Jubilee Line as TfL offers... 24 May 2012 at 3:22am The Guardian Evening Standard A woman suffered a suspected fit after passengers were stuck in a sweltering Jubilee Line train for TWO HOURS after it broke down in the middle of a tunnel. Paramedics were called to treat the woman, who is in her 30s, as she suffered the attack in the ... Travel misery for Tube commutersThe Press Association Underground, Overground by Andrew Martin ? reviewThe Guardian Hundreds of passengers trapped on tube for two hoursTelegraph.co.uk BBC News -ITV News all 14 news articles » 'Flashman' David Cameron calls Ed Balls 'muttering idiot' in House of Commons... 24 May 2012 at 1:36am ![]() Belfast Telegraph Scottish Daily Record THE PRIME MINISTER lost his cool at the dispatch box yesterday by lashing out and branding Ed Balls a ?muttering idiot?. David Cameron lost his temper after the Shadow Chancellor teased him to ?chillax, and have another glass of wine?. Not so chillaxed: Hot-headed PM forced to apologise after calling Ed Balls a ...Mirror.co.uk Ed Balls causes David Cameron to lose his temper ? againThe Independent Sketch: 'Muttering idiot' makes Daddy jolly crossTelegraph.co.uk The Guardian -BBC News -The Press Association all 383 news articles » Schools in Caerphilly County Borough to get £2.4 million from Welsh Governmen... 24 May 2012 at 2:34am ![]() Link2Portal Caerphilly Observer Schools in Caerphilly County Borough are to receive £2484000 from the Welsh Government in a bid to help the least well-off pupils. The Pupil Deprivation Grant promises to pass the money directly to schools, based on the number of children eligible for ... £32.4ma-year funding boost for Wales' least well-off pupilsWalesOnline £3.5bn fund for Wales' infrastructure projectsBBC News Jones queries electoral change planThe Press Association Left Foot Forward -New Civil Engineer -Daily Post North Wales all 52 news articles » The hidden beauty of Spaghetti Junction revealed as Britain's craziest ... - ... 24 May 2012 at 3:38am ![]() Daily Mail Daily Mail By Kerry Mcqueeney Its unsightly appearance is matched only by the level of confusion is causes the motorists who use it. But small pockets of beauty have been found in the unlikeliest of places - in the nooks and crannies of Birmingham's notorious ... Spaghetti Junction in Birmingham turns 40Telegraph.co.uk Spaghetti Junction: Gravelly Hill Interchange opened 40 years agoBBC News Spaghetti Junction turns 40Fleet Directory ITV News -Contract hire and leasing news (press release) (blog) -The Business Desk (registration) all 10 news articles » |
![]() Business News Business News continually updated from thousands of sources around the net. Oil falls to 7-month low below $91 in Europe after Iran agrees to allow UN nu... 24 May 2012 at 1:34am By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark oil for July delivery was down 88 cents to $90.97 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Morgan Stanley Under Fire Over Facebook IPO - And Other News Told In Charts 23 May 2012 at 9:19pm Facebook's blown IPO has investors and regulators sharpening knives, and they're pointing at lead underwriter Morgan Stanley . Hong Kong Billionaire Lau Charged With Bribery in Macau 23 May 2012 at 9:19pm Joseph Lau, the billionaire chairman of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd., will stand trial for bribery and money laundering in Macau in connection with a land purchase in the world's biggest gambling hub Macau's Court of Criminal Instruction accepted charges brought by the public prosecutor against Lau, rejecting a request to dismiss the case on lack ... (more) Between Facebook and JPMorgan, Wall St. woes mount 23 May 2012 at 8:14pm Investor anger mounted Wednesday over the initial public offering of Facebook stock last week, which was fumbled by the banks that managed the deal and complicated by technical problems at the Nasdaq stock exchange. Alere Recalls 803,000 Heart Attacks and Heart Failure Tests 23 May 2012 at 7:09pm Alere Inc. is recalling 803,000 tests used to detect heart attacks and manage heart failure patients that failed to meet quality control guidelines. michael_cavna 23 May 2012 at 5:00pm Comic Riffs is a blog devoted to the comics fan. Come in, sit down and put your feet up as we celebrate, contemplate, eviscerate and pontificate on cartoons. NFLPA Files Collusion Charges Against NFL Claiming 'Secret Cap' In 2010 23 May 2012 at 2:55pm The NFL Players Association today filed suit against the NFL claiming that 28 of the 32 clubs in the league conspired to keep salaries down during the uncapped year of 2010. WFNX going for $14.5M in sale to Clear Channel 23 May 2012 at 1:55pm The purchase price was listed in an asset purchase agreement filed today with the Federal Communications Commission, which must approve the deal. Is Everest Climber's Death A Case Of Goal Setting Gone Terribly Wrong? 23 May 2012 at 1:55pm Shriya Shah-Klorfine had wanted to scale Everest since she was nine years old. She and her husband remortgaged their house to raise the $100 000 the trek would cost and put off having children so she could pursue her dream. Here's The Damning Facebook Lawsuit From The Guys Who Won $7 Billion From Enr... 23 May 2012 at 10:56am Earlier, we reported that Robbins Geller, the law firm that won $7 billion from Enron's bankers, has filed a class action lawsuit against Facebook and Morgan Stanley . Greek banks to get $23 billion from bailout fund 23 May 2012 at 10:56am Four of Greece's leading banks are to receive a 18 billion capital injection to replenish reserves which were hit by country's massive debt restructuring deal. Reebok India alleges $233m fraud 23 May 2012 at 8:55am Reebok India has lodged a police complaint against former managing director Subhinder Singh Prem and ex-chief operating officer Vishnu Bhagat accusing them of commercial and financial irregularities. Shareholders May Bust Up JPMorgan: KBW 23 May 2012 at 7:51am Konrad said that his firm did not think that JPMorgan CEO James Dimon was "going anywhere soon," in the wake of the company's $2 billion second-quarter hedge trading loss and its suspension of its share buyback program, but that "should the market continue to depress the multiples of universal banks regardless of underlying values, we believe the ... (more) Bank eyed case for more stimulus 23 May 2012 at 4:36am Bank of England policymakers voted by 8-1 this month against pumping more money into the economy, but the decision was "finely balanced" for some members, minutes show. EU appeals to China to join global emissions talks 23 May 2012 at 1:26am A European envoy held out a possible compromise in a fight with China over carbon emissions charges on airlines, saying Wednesday that Europe might alter its system if Beijing helps negotiate global regulations. |
![]() BBC News - Business The latest stories from the Business section of the BBC News web site. Economy shrank more than thought 24 May 2012 at 3:19am The UK economy shrank by 0.3% in the first three months of the year, more than previously estimated, revised figures show. Eurozone downturn 'accelerating' 24 May 2012 at 4:04am Activity at European businesses hits a near three-year low in May, according to the survey of purchasing managers by Markit. Free banking 'a dangerous myth' 24 May 2012 at 3:57am Free banking is a "dangerous myth", according to Andrew Bailey, who is due to become the chief regulator of the financial services industry. Hewlett-Packard cuts 27,000 jobs 23 May 2012 at 3:34pm Hewlett-Packard, the world's largest computer maker, is to cut 27,000 jobs by the end of 2014 as part of a drive to "simplify" the business. EU 'wants Greece in the eurozone' 24 May 2012 at 4:08am EU leaders express support for keeping Greece in the eurozone while demanding that it stick with tough budget discipline. Weak UK business hits Mothercare 24 May 2012 at 1:33am Babywear retailer Mothercare reports a hefty annual loss as it seeks to tackle the poor performance of its UK business. Thomas Cook appoints new chief 24 May 2012 at 3:40am Struggling tour operator Thomas Cook appoints Harriet Green as its new chief executive. Tax effort 'stunted by job cuts' 23 May 2012 at 5:08pm Impressive efforts have been made by the UK tax authority to collect outstanding tax but more could have been done without job cuts, MPs say. SABMiller reports strong profits 24 May 2012 at 1:52am SABMiller reports annual pre-tax profits of $5.6bn boosted by the sale of units in Russian and Ukraine. Facebook and banks face lawsuit 23 May 2012 at 3:37pm Facebook, its founder Mark Zuckerberg, and the banks leading its flotation are sued over claims that financial information was not disclosed. China seeks economic growth boost 23 May 2012 at 8:05pm China says it will take measures to boost demand and sustain growth amid fears of a slowdown in its economy. Chinese manufacturing 'declines' 23 May 2012 at 9:23pm China's manufacturing activity contracted in May, a survey shows, indicating that the rate of growth in the economy is continuing to slow. Jury backs Google in Oracle fight 23 May 2012 at 1:23pm Internet giant Google did not infringe patents belonging to software developer Oracle, a court in California has ruled. BAE signs £1.9bn Saudi jet deal 23 May 2012 at 10:40am British defence giant BAE signs a £1.9bn ($3bn) deal with Saudi Arabia to supply Hawk trainer jets, safeguarding over 200 UK jobs. Google funds computer teaching 23 May 2012 at 12:00pm The search firm's chairman announces funds to place new computer science teachers in English schools. |
![]() Financial Services company and industry news from the Financial Times The financial services company and industry news with expert analysis from the Financial Times on FT.com Tax protests disrupt CME annual meeting 23 May 2012 at 7:41pm Demonstrators repeatedly challenged management about tax relief the company received from the cash-strapped state of Illinois last year Paragon gains from downturn 23 May 2012 at 2:18pm Much of the buy-to-let lender?s double-digit rise in profit was because of acquisitions of loan portfolios from lenders that are shrinking WorldSpreads? high-rollers to be pursued 23 May 2012 at 1:55pm Administrators of the defunct spread betting group say debtors owe the company £2.5m, with most of this owed by several high-value clients Buffett banker details ?top secret? deal 23 May 2012 at 12:28pm Byron Trott, the former Goldman banker responsible for a relationship with Warren Buffett, gave an inside detailed account of how the bank struck a deal at the heart of an insider trading trial involving a former bank director. Investor interest in HICL equity surges 23 May 2012 at 10:08am UK-listed infrastructure fund, which reported an annual pre-tax profit increase to £62m, says a recent £250m equity raising was oversubscribed by 20% Knight puts Facebook glitch loss at $35m 23 May 2012 at 6:18pm The first official statement about the impact of the opening moments of Facebook share trading highlights an expected flood of customer claims against Nasdaq Investors lose faith in banks? RWA models 23 May 2012 at 4:58pm Barclays report finds that 63 per cent of institutional investors asked have less faith in bank RWA models than they did a year ago M Stanley turns profit on Facebook support 23 May 2012 at 2:11pm The profit for the lead underwriter is likely to focus attention on the mechanics of how big Wall Street banks ?stabilise? shares in IPOs Cable enterprise measures hit criticism 23 May 2012 at 1:34pm Launch against a backdrop of criticism for refusing to back radical employment law reform, and cross-party claims Treasury failing to rise to challenge Markets: Out of stock 23 May 2012 at 1:14pm The end of a six-decade passion for equities could lead to a less flexible, more conservative model of corporate financing. By John Authers and Kate Burgess Investors sue Facebook and banks on IPO 23 May 2012 at 12:59pm Group files lawsuit in a US federal district court, alleging ?untrue statements of material facts? in the social network group?s prospectus US money market funds shun eurozone banks 23 May 2012 at 12:27pm Funds have cut their exposure to the financial sector by two-thirds in past year while sharply increasing holdings of so-called secured debt Many synthetic ETFs in ?danger zone? 23 May 2012 at 11:38am More than three-quarters of the synthetic exchange traded funds listed in Europe are at risk of closure after failing to attract sufficient inflows in their first three years HK bans former Fidelity fund manager 23 May 2012 at 5:51am Former Fidelity fund manager based in the US is banned from trading in Hong Kong after improperly placing sell orders ahead of a rights issue Morgan Stanley subpoenaed over IPO 22 May 2012 at 5:25pm An investigation is being launched into whether Morgan Stanley analysts communicated revisions of Facebook?s revenue forecasts to all clients before the initial public offering. |
![]() Sky News | Business | First For Breaking News The latest business news on British and international companies, stocks and shares news, the FTSE, Dow Jones and main market movers. What???s up and what???s down in business. UK Double-Dip Recession Deeper Than Feared The UK double-dip recession is deeper than originally thought after revised figures showed a sharper decline in economic output during the first quarter of the year. BoE Official: Banks Must Charge For Accounts High-street banks will need to start charging for current accounts to prevent mis-selling scandals, a senior policymaker has advised. HP Warns Of British Cuts As 27,000 Jobs Go Hewlett Packard has warned of cuts in its UK operation in a global purge that will see it axe 27,000 workers. Euro Summit: PM Angry At Failure To Agree A summit of European leaders has ended without clear agreement on how best to restore confidence in the euro, despite pleas from the British PM to get a grip on the crisis. Ailing Retailer Mothercare Reports £103m Loss Mothercare has reported a £102.9m loss in a tumultuous year which saw many of its UK stores face closure, its share price plummet and its chief executive replaced. |
Forex Blog Learn about the world of Forex Loonie and Aussie Share Downward Bond by Adam Kritzer 30 Jun 2011 at 9:15am In yesterday’s post (Tide is Turning for the Aussie), I explained how a prevailing sense of uncertainty in the markets has manifested itself in the form of a declining Australian Dollar. With today’s post, I’d like to carry that argument forward to the Canadian Dollar.
Beyond this, both currencies are seen as attractive proxies for risk. Even though the chaos in the eurozone has very little actual connection to the Loonie and Aussie (which are fiscally sound, geographically distinct, and economically insulated from the crisis), the two currencies have recently taken their cues from political developments in Greece, of all things. Given the heightened sensitivity to risk that has arisen both from the sovereign debt crisis and global economic slowdown, it’s no surprise that investors have responded cautiously by unwinding bets on the Canadian dollar.
In the near-term, then, the prospects for further appreciation are not good. The currency’s rise was so solid in 2009-2010 that it now seems the forex markets may have gotten ahead of themselves. A pullback towards parity – and beyond – seems like the only realistic possibility. If/when the global economy stabilizes, central banks resume heightening, and risk appetite increases, you can be sure that the Loonie (and the Aussie) will pick up where they left off.
Tide is Turning for the Aussieby Adam Kritzer 29 Jun 2011 at 10:40am “Australia is about to enter a boom that should last decades…The Australian dollar is unlikely to go back to where it was, and manufacturing will shrink in importance to the economy, perhaps even faster than it has been.” This, according to Martin Parkinson, Treasury Minister of Australia. While 30 years from now, Mr. Parkinson’s prognosis might probe to be accurate, I’m not so sure it applies to the period 3 months from now. Here’s why: First of all, the putative economic boom that is taking place in Australia is being driven entirely by high commodity prices and surging production and exports. Since peaking at the end of April, commodity prices have fallen mightily. You can see from the chart above that there continues to exist a tight correlation between the AUD/USD and commodities prices. As commodities prices have fallen over the last two months, so has the Australian Dollar.
Finally, the mining sector directly accounts for only 8% of Australia’s economy, which means that only to a limited extent to high commodities prices contribute to the bottom line of Australian GDP. This notion is reinforced by the 1.2% economic contraction in the second quarter – the biggest decline in 20 years – and the fact that GDP is basically flat over the last three quarters. Many non-mining economic indicators are sagging, and the number of corporate bankruptcies is 10% higher than in 2010. In the end, then, the ebb and flow of Australia’s fortune depends less on commodities, and more on other sectors.
That’s because anecdotal reports suggest that the Australian Dollar remains a popular long currency for carry traders, funded by shorting the US Dollar, and to a lesser extent, Japanese Yen. Given that many of these carry trades are heavily leveraged, it wouldn’t take much to trigger a short squeeze and a rapid decline in the AUD/USD. For evidence of this phenomenon, one has to look no further back than May 2010, when the Aussie fell 10-15% in only three weeks.
Emerging Market Currencies Brace for Correctionby Adam Kritzer 28 Jun 2011 at 2:42am “It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair,” begins Charles Dickens’ The Tale of Two Cities. In 2011, the winter of despair was followed by the spring of uncertainty. Due to the earthquake/tsunami in Japan, the continued tribulations of Greece, rising commodity prices, and growing concern over the global economic recovery, volatility in the forex markets has risen, and investors are unclear as to how to proceed. For now at least, they are responding by dumping emerging market currencies.
There are a couple of factors that are driving this ebbing of sentiment. First of all, risk appetite is waning. Over the last couple months, every flareup in the eurozone debt crisis coincided with a sell-off in emerging markets. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Central and eastern European currencies that are seen as being most vulnerable to financial turmoil in the euro zone have underperformed.” Economies further afield, such as Turkey and Russia, have also experienced weakness in their respective currencies. Some analysts believe that because emerging economies are generally more fiscally sound than their fundamental counterparts, that they are inherently less risky. Unfortunately, while this proposition makes theoretical sense, you can be assured that a default by a member of the eurozone will trigger a mass exodus into safe havens – NOT into emerging markets.
NO QE3: What are the Implications for the Dollar?by Adam Kritzer 25 Jun 2011 at 7:28am The verdict is nearly in; there will be no QE3. The second round of quantitative easing (?QE2?) will expire at the end of this month, and while it will not be unwound for quite some time, the Fed has indicated that it will not be followed by yet another round. The question on the minds of forex traders, of course, is what does this mean for the Dollar?
In his most recent press conference, Ben Bernanke, himself, indicated that QE3 was unlikely. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News, the majority of FX analysts (65%) believe him. Simply, the circumstances don?t support further easing. To be sure, the unemployment rate remains high, and the economy is teetering on the verge of double-dip recession. However, the last two rounds did little to address either of these problems, and companies have hoarded cash rather than investing in new plant and workers. Interest rates are still hovering around record lows, and there isn?t anything to be gained from trying to lower them further. Besides, given that inflation is now above 3% ? due to an explosion in good and energy prices ? QE3 would simply be too risky. Economist Ken Goldstein summarized the situation as follows: “We will come to the end of QE2 and largely we mark about how little happened when it ended and that?s also an argument about why there may not be persuasive argument to do a QE3.” On the other hand, there are some analysts who think that QE3 is inevitable (29%). PIMCO?s Bill Gross, manager of the world?s biggest bond fund, recently indicated that, ?Next Jackson Hole in August will likely hint at QE3/interest rate caps.? (Personally, I think that he?s probably just bitter that his forecast of a decline in Treasury Bond prices hasn?t materialized). One columnist wrote that the Fed?s arm will be twisted by the ongoing collapse of the housing market, while others have argued that the recent decline in the S&P 500 will spur the Fed into action. Most of us, however, believe that the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach before ultimately conceding that more easing is necessary.
For now at least, then, the prevailing assumption is that there will not be a QE3. As for how forex markets have digested this news, they have taken it in stride. The Dollar is now holding its value, and as I wrote in a previous post, it may even have bottomed out. Of course, it doesn?t hurt that the Euro is being punished by another flare-up in the sovereign debt crisis and investors are getting nervous about bubbles in emerging market currencies, all of which provide support for the dollar. The fact that QE2 will soon end without having triggered financial apocalypse or hyperinflation ? as some cassandras initially predicted ? is something that is worth nothing. Of course, the proceeds of QE1 and QE2 will be recycled indefinitely into the markets, and forex investors can?t completely put quantitative easing behind them. Still, that there won’t be any more additional cash injected into commodities markets and emerging economy asset markets means that one of the main sources of downward pressure on the dollar has been eliminated. Ironically, it is possible that the unveiling of QE3 could actually cause the dollar to rally. The reason is that there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the markets, which provides the dollar with some safe haven demand. If the Fed were to concede that all is not well on the economic front and respond by more money printing, it could drive some safe haven flows into the US, even to the extent that it would overwhelm outflows driven by concerns over inflation. Personally, I think the dollar will continue to hold its value, and perhaps even appreciate slightly in the near-term, as forex markets dither over the way forward. http://www.forexblog.org/2011/06/has-the-us-dollar-hit-bottom.html
Swiss Franc is the Only Safe Haven Currencyby Adam Kritzer 23 Jun 2011 at 10:11am According to conventional market wisdom, there are three safe haven currencies: the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and US Dollar. It is to these currencies that investors flock whenever there is a crisis, or merely an outbreak of uncertainty, and for much of the period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the three were closely correlated. As you can see from the chart below, however, one of these currencies has begun to distinguish itself from the other two, leading some to argue that there is now only one true safe haven currency: the Swiss Franc.
Ironically, the only thing that makes investors nervous about the franc is that it has already risen so much. Remember when it reached the milestone of parity against the dollar in 2010? Since then, it has appreciated by an additional 20%, and seems to breach a new record on an almost weekly basis. The same goes for the CHF/EUR and CHF/JPY. The President of Switzerland’s export association is expecting further gains: “Parity is a realistic scenario. Given the indebtedness of the eurozone and the strong attraction of the franc, the euro is likely to continue to lose value.”
The main variable in the Swiss Franc is the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Having booked a loss of CHF 20 Billion from failed intervention in 2010, the SNB is not in a position to make the same mistake again. In fact, SNB President Philipp Hildebrand has not even stooped to verbal intervention this time around, undoubtedly cognizant of the fact that he has very little credibility in forex markets. At the same time, the SNB is not in any hurry to raise interest rates, lest it stoke further speculative interest in the Franc. Its June meeting came and went without any indication of when it might tighten. Interest rate futures currently reflect an expectation that the first rate hike won’t come until March 2012. Thus, the downside of holding the Franc is that it will continue to pay a negative real interest rate. The only upside, then, is the possibility of further appreciation. Fortunately, the SNB is unlikely to stop the Franc from rising, since it serves the same monetary end as higher interest rates. In other words, a more valuable Franc serves as a direct check on inflation because it lowers the cost of commodity imports and should (eventually) soften demand for Swiss exports. It is possible that the Swiss Franc will suffer a correction at some point, if only because it rose by such a large margin in such a short period of time. On the other hand, given that its economy has proved its ability to withstand the Franc’s appreciation, it’s no wonder that investors continue to bet on its rise.
Is it Possible to Trade Forex Part-time?by Adam Kritzer 22 Jun 2011 at 10:17am This week, I came across an article in the San Francisco Gate (which, incidentally, has really ramped up its forex coverage over the last year) that addressed this very topic. Given that part-time forex traders probably outnumber those that practice the craft full-time, such an article was long overdue. In sum, the author advises part-time traders to concentrate their trading during the busiest times of the day, or failing that, to simply trade the most active currency pairs during the period of the day that one happens to have time to trade. For example, if you wish to trade the USD/EUR but only have a limited amount of time to do so, you are advised to trade the opening of the New York and/or London sessions, at 8AM EST and 3AM EST, respectively. Alternatively, if you only have time to trade from midnight to 2am, for example, you are advised to trade currency pairs in which the quote currency is the Yen, because during that time the Tokyo session is “in full swing.”
If you read the Forex Blog with any regularity and are ware that my bend is towards fundamental analysis, it’s probably already obvious to you that I don’t think this is necessarily the case. Consider that forex is a zero-sum game. In other words, on average, 50% of traders win and 50% lose. [When you account for trading costs (i.e. spreads), its probably closer to 30% win and 70% lose, but let's ignore this for the sake of argument]. Thus, the way I see it, a trader that enters the market during the busiest times has the same chance of winning (~50%) as a different trader that enters the market during the least busy time of day. Either way you cut it, someone has to win and someone has to lose, and no amount of liquidity or volatility can rectify this situation. Thus, my advice for part-time traders is to forget trading altogether. If you don’t have the time to constantly monitor the market, pore over charts, and develop technical strategy, the odds of winning are pretty low. On the other hand, why not shift your focus from trading to investing? Trading is difficult under the best of circumstances and even more difficult when you don’t have enough time to make a real commitment.
This way, you also don’t have to worry about carefully planning your entry and exit into positions. Entering a swing trade with a targeted profit of 500pips is probably just as good at 4am as it is at 7am, all else being equal. While this doesn’t necessarily increase the odds of success (above 50%), at least it gives you a great deal more flexibility in being a part-time trader.
Japanese Yen In ?No Man?s Land?by Adam Kritzer 20 Jun 2011 at 8:52am This, according to a hedge fund manager that has decided to cancel all of his fund’s bearish bets on the Japanese Yen. The reason: the yen is rising, and it’s unclear when – or even if – the government will intervene to push it back down. Even though the yen’s strength is fundamentally illogical, it seems that investors are growing increasingly wary of betting against it.
Japanese government analysis has indeed confirmed that “speculators” are behind the strong yen, as the alleged wide-scale repatriation of yen by Japanese insurance companies has yet to materialize. Of course, there isn’t really much doubt: Japan’s economy is contracting, due to decrease in output spurred by the tsunami. In May, it recorded its second largest monthly trade deficit ever. Meanwhile, interest rates and bond yields are pathetically low, and the Bank of Japan is being urged to expand its asset buying program, which would theoretically result in a devaluation of the yen. As a result, retail Japanese forex traders (nicknamed “Mrs. Watanabes“) have resumed shorting the Yen as part of a carry trade strategy. Alas, speculators either don’t share their pessimism or are running out of patience. While everyone continues to assume that the BOJ will intervene if the Yen rises to 80 against the dollar, no one can be sure whether the line in the sand might not be 78 or even 75. At this point, intervention seems to hinge more on politics than on economics, which means predicting it is beyond the scope of this post. In other words, “There is too much uncertainty and volatility in markets right now to make that yen trade appealing.” And sure enough, the most recent Commitments of Traders data shows that speculators have been re-building their yen long positions over the last month.
I’m personally still bearish on the yen, but I also think it’s too risky to short it against the dollar, which seems to be declining for its own reasons. As you can see from the chart below, the yen has fallen against virtually every other major currency. Yen shorters, then, might be wise to avoid the dollar altogether and focus instead on any number of other currencies.
Forex Volatility Continues Risingby Adam Kritzer 17 Jun 2011 at 9:38am This week witnessed another flareup in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. As a result, volatility in the EUR/USD pair surged, by some measures to a record high. Even though the Euro rallied yesterday and today, this suggests that investors remain nervous, and that going forward, the euro could embark on a steep decline.
For specific volatility measurements, there is no better source of data than Mataf.net (whose founder, Arnaud Jeulin, I interviewed only last month). Here, you can find data on more than 30 currency pairs, charted across multiple time periods. You can see for the EUR/USD pair in particular that volatility is now at the highest point in 2011 and is closing in on a two-year high.
What does all of this mean? In a nutshell, it shows that panic is rising in the forex markets. Last month, I used this notion as a basis for arguing that the dollar safe-haven trade will make a come-back. This would still seem to be the case, and should also benefit the Swiss Franc, which is nearing an all-time high against the euro. Naturally, it also implies that forex investors remain extremely concerned about a continued decline in the euro, and are rushing to hedge their exposure and/or close out long positions altogether. Mataf.net suggests that this could make the EUR/USD an interesting pair to trade, since large swings in either direction will necessarily create opportunities for traders. While I have no opinion on such indiscriminate trading [I prefer to make directional bets based on fundamentals], I must nonetheless acknowledge the logic of such a strategy. http://www.forexblog.org/2011/05/interview-with-arnaud-jeulin-of-mataf-net-try-a-lot-of-strategies.html
Euro Nears Breaking Pointby Adam Kritzer 16 Jun 2011 at 8:33am It’s deja vu all over again in the forex markets as another twist in the sovereign debt crisis has sent the euro tumbling by the greatest margin in nearly a year. It was only last month that I posted “The Euro (Still) has a Greek Problem,” and yet, forex markets are once again reacting to the possibility of a Greek default as thought it were a new development. At the very least, investors finally seem to be acknowledging the inevitable. There have been several factors at work in this latest episode. On Monday, S&P downgraded its credit rating for Greece to CCC, following on a similar move by Moody’s. That means that Greece’s sovereign credit rating is now the lowest in the world, behind such eminent economies as Grenada and Ecuador. While the move was hardly noteworthy in itself, it represents one more straw on the camel’s back.
Greece’s government is increasingly unstable, and Prime Minister George Papandreou has become so desperate that he has suggested forming an alliance with Greece’s most powerful opposition party. Meanwhile, violent riots outside Greek Parliament have reportedly become a daily occurrence, as the Greek populace has proven unwilling to accept wage cuts and tax increases. As if that weren’t enough, there is tremendous uncertainty surrounding the next stage of the Greek bailout. No one can agree on what amount to give and what should be stipulated in return. Some parties think that private investors should be involved in the bailout by taking a “haircut” on the bonds that they own. Some members of the eurozone are balking about contributing any funds at all, wary of justifying it to their own citizens and that it is merely forestalling the inevitable. I think the NYTimes offered the best summary: “Funding fatigue is growing in the north European creditor countries, especially Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria, just as austerity fatigue is mounting in Greece.” When you consider that Greek interest rates and credit default swap spreads have surged to record highs, it seems that default is really inevitable. If the IMF and European Union are so determined, they can push off default until 2013. Still, default now or default then is still default. At this point, then, the only real question is what happens when Greece defaults. Will it be forced to leave the Eurozone? Will that push the rest of the Eurozone fringe closer towards default? Will the Euro collapse and cease to exist as a currency? What will happen then? Unfortunately, I think the answer to all of these questions is yes. At the very least, Greece will be forced out of the eurozone. Bondholders will push interest rates in Ireland, Spain, and Portugal up to double-digit levels, trapping them in the same cycle in which Greece is currently ensnared. Given the exposure of French and German banks to the sovereign debt of financially troubled eurozone members, they will also require state bailouts, and so on. In a recent op-ed published in The Financial Times, celebrity economies Nouriel Roubini argued that the only way to avoid a complete eurozone meltdown is if the euro depreciates rapidly “to restore competitiveness to the periphery” or if the European Union is able to rapidly achieve complete fiscal and economic union. Roubini argues that the former is difficult because of the ECB’s hawkishness, while the latter is precluded by political hurdles that remain too formidable to overcome. As Greece inches ever closer to default, the markets will increasingly become gripped by utter uncertainty over the questions that I posed above. Central Banks will stop accumulating euro-denominated assets, and investment funds will similarly shun Europe. (In fact, there is already evidence that this is happening). While European interest rates are attractive relative to the rest of the G4, they are hardly enough to compensate investors for this uncertainty. And when the markets come to terms with this, the euro might finally reach its breaking point.
S&P 500 Decouples from Euro?by Adam Kritzer 14 Jun 2011 at 9:58am While I have written quite about forex correlations in recent posts, the focus has primarily been on correlations that exist between currencies. In this post, I would like to address a correlation that exists between currencies and other forex markets- specifically the relationship between the Euro and US stocks.
Why is this the case? In a nutshell, it is because the Euro – especially relative to the dollar – is a proxy for risk appetite. The same is necessarily true for US stocks. When investors are confident in the strength of the global economic recovery and the possibility of crisis is distant, the euro will rise. This has nothing to do with fundamentals in Europe, which are probably at least as bad as they are in the US. Of course, it may be connected with dollar weakness, since it is arguably the case that quantitative easing has both depressed the dollar and buoyed US stocks. As I intimated in the title of this post, however, the S&P recently decoupled from the euro. Since the beginning of June, US equities have declined sharply, to the extent that they have given back most of their gains in the year-to-date. The EUR/USD, meanwhile, continued rising all the way until last week. While this has happened on a couple previous occasions, this was perhaps the sharpest break between the two. I’m personally at a loss to explain why this happened. It has been conjectured that the driving force behind the correlation is algorithmic trading, and that hence, it must also represent the source of the break. In other words, high-frequency traders – which account for an ever-increasing proportion of forex volume – tweaked their trading algorithms so as not to buy the S&P 500 when the EURUSD rises, and vice versa. It’s probably also the case that S&P 500 was falling for endogenous reasons- specifically a decline in GDP growth and earnings expectations which need not necessarily reflect itself in a stronger euro. In fact, in a normal functioning market, you would expect an inverse correlation; strong US economic fundamentals should translate into both a strong dollar and rising stocks. Could it be that worsening fundamentals are manifesting themselves in the form of a weak dollar and weak stocks? Alas, the correlation has re-established itself over the last week, which means this is largely a moot issue. At the very least, it’s still worth being aware of, both insofar as it remains intact and in the event that it breaks down again.
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DailyFX - Forex Market News Forex Market News Euro, Risky Assets Look to Eurozone PMI and German IFO for Direction by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist 24 May 2012 at 1:05am The Euro and major currencies look to Eurozone PMI and German IFO data for direction as markets gauge how much slumping growth may amplify the debt crisis. Dollar Shows Follow Through on Bullish Break, EURUSD at 2010 Lows by John Kicklighter, Sr. Currency Strategist 23 May 2012 at 8:44pm There was a distinct difference in performance between basic risk trends and the US dollar. Though the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly tested a new low for the year, it quickly recovered most of its lost ground. In contrast, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index advanced for a second consecutive day to fresh 16-month highs. Guest Commentary: Is Germany Willing to Accept More Inflation? by Yohay Elam, Forex Crunch, 23 May 2012 at 8:00pm An important metal workers' union in Germany signed a 13 month deal for a wage increase of 4.3%. This is a benchmark for other unions and also joins other agreements that surpass German inflation and the ECB's target. USD Primary Objective at 10,255- Pullbacks To Offer Favorable Entries by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist 23 May 2012 at 3:36pm The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index continued its advance in North American trade as a global risk sell-off fueled haven flows into the greenback. Here are the levels to watch for heading into Asia Pacific trade. EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Durable Goods Orders Report by Michael Boutros, Currency StrategistDavid Song, Currency Analyst 23 May 2012 at 3:05pm Orders for U.S. durable goods are projected to bounce back in April and increased demands for large-ticket items may prop up the USD as it curbs speculation for additional monetary support. Yen Rockets As BoJ Holds Off Further Stimulus; Greek Exit Fears Grow by Tzu-Wen Chen, 23 May 2012 at 10:51am The Yen and US Dollar rallied overnight as investors flocked to the safe haven currencies amid growing Greek exit fears, while the Bank of Japan’s holdback on further stimulus sent the Yen soaring. USD Rally May Defy Market Expectations, AUD Struggles To Find Support by David Song, Currency Analyst 23 May 2012 at 10:15am The greenback extended the advance from the previous day, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index rallying to a fresh yearly high of 10,203, and the reserve currency may track higher over the remainder of the week as the ongoing turmoil in the euro-area continues to drag on investor confidence. Euro Searches For Support, EU Summit To Provide Little Relief by David Song, Currency Analyst 23 May 2012 at 8:15am The Euro appears to be regaining its footing on Wednesday amid hopes surrounding the EU Summit, but the meeting may yield little support for the single currency as European policy makers struggle to meet on common ground. Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 05.23.2012 by Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG, 23 May 2012 at 8:01am Gold and silver continued their downward trend as the Euro and other currencies also tumbled down. The U.S existing home sales rose in April. Commodities Tumble Along with Stocks Before EU Leaders Summit by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist 23 May 2012 at 3:00am Commodity prices sank along with stock exchanges as jittery traders waited for the outcome of an EU leaders’ summit amid swelling Eurozone crisis fears. Yen Soars as BOJ Holds Back on Stimulus, EU Summit Now in Focus by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist 23 May 2012 at 1:09am The Japanese Yen soared as Greece-linked risk aversion was compounded as the BOJ opted not to expand stimulus. The EU leaders’ summit is now in focus. Euro At Risk for Major Drop As Eurozone Crisis Intensifies by Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist 22 May 2012 at 11:12pm There is very little if any positive news for investors to hold onto at the moment, as panic and fear seem to be firmly in the driver’s seat.... Dollar Surges to 16 Month Highs - Leading Move or False Break? by John Kicklighter, Sr. Currency Strategist 22 May 2012 at 9:10pm Congestion is usually the path of least resistance, but it seems that the reversal pattern the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar was carving out yesterday carried more fundamental pressure than originally expected. USD Index Eyes Fresh Highs on Greek Exit- EU Summit to Offer Clarity by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist 22 May 2012 at 3:55pm The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index surged in North American trade, making fresh 2012 highs ahead of tomorrow’s much anticipated EU Summit. Here are the levels to watch heading Asia Pacific trade. USDCAD: Trading Canada’s Retail Sales Report by David Song, Currency Analyst 22 May 2012 at 3:40pm Retail spending in Canada is expected to bounce back in March and a positive development may spark a bullish reaction in the Canadian dollar as it increases the scope for higher borrowing costs. |
World business news - CNNMoney.com From CNN and Money magazine, CNNMoney.com combines business news and in-depth market analysis with practical advice and answers to personal finance questions. ![]() CHINA STILL HURTING 24 May 2012 at 3:02am China's manufacturing sector continued to shrink in May, according to preliminary data released Thursday. World markets mixed 24 May 2012 at 2:53am ![]() National debt: Will the U.S. be like Japan? 24 May 2012 at 3:13am Political gridlock. High national debt. Rock-bottom bond rates. An aging population. Warnings about more downgrades. ![]() Hide from Europe's mess with dividend stocks 23 May 2012 at 1:55pm Europe's debt woes got you down? Looking for a safe place to hide in this increasingly ugly market? Track U.S. stock futures and premarket movers 23 May 2012 at 2:56am ![]() Facebook's IPO: Sorting through the legal mess 23 May 2012 at 8:07pm At this point, there's little question that Facebook's IPO was a disaster. But was it illegal? ![]() HP to cut 27,000 jobs, shares surge 23 May 2012 at 6:19pm Hewlett-Packard announced Wednesday that it is slashing 27,000 jobs in a widely expected maneuver aimed at slimming down the struggling tech giant. ![]() World Bank warns of China slowdown 24 May 2012 at 3:07am The World Bank said a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the entire East Asia-Pacific region. ![]() Could Europe sink President Obama's campaign? 23 May 2012 at 3:13am Trillions in looming tax hikes and spending cuts. Washington saber-rattling over the debt ceiling. A slowdown in the world's second largest economy. ![]() Oil prices slide to 7-month low 23 May 2012 at 1:54pm Oil prices fell below $90 a barrel for the first time in seven months Wednesday as tumult in the eurozone, excess supply and positive news out of Iran weighed on prices. ![]() Facebook stock plunge is 'day trader's paradise' 23 May 2012 at 1:58pm Facebook's stock has plunged nearly 18% from its IPO price, but it's not simply a case of investors disliking the company. ![]() Cars for Facebook billionaires 23 May 2012 at 5:12am Car buying suggestions for Facebook employees with a new-found wad of cash burning a hole in their pocket. ![]() World's largest economies 25 Apr 2012 at 11:18am ![]() Google beats Oracle in Android patent fight 23 May 2012 at 1:24pm In one of Silicon Valley's landmark court battles, Google appears to have won a big victory over Oracle. ![]() Wake up, Europe! It's time for a real fix. 22 May 2012 at 8:34am European leaders have solid ideas on the table to help solve the eurozone crisis, but nothing will work without full fiscal and monetary integration. |
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Don't forget this is what we offer...
We can offer... Superior Currency Exchange Rates...
We can offer... No Fees or Commission...
We can offer... No Telegraphic Transfer Costs...
We can offer...
Your Own Currency Dealer...
We can offer...
Forward Buying
(Pre-fixing an exchange rate for up to two year's
advance)
We can offer...
No receiving charges to
any World Wide Bank...
(with the exception of 22 currencies in third world countries)
We can offer... incredible savings and reduce the risk of adverse currency fluctuations (see below)
Furthermore...
We can also offer... Arranging this transfer from the comfort of your own home...
We can also offer... Regular updates during the process of the transfer...
We can also offer... Receive confirmation that that the money has been exchanged and transferred
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